PnL (30d)

+$791

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$51

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+1.3%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

94%

3,284W / 192L · 296 open

Win Return (30d)

93%

3,376W / 267L · 129 open

Trades (30d)

3,772

across 1,650 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

+$0.54

avg win $2 · loss $20

Profit Factor

1.35

$3,029 won / $2,239 lost

Reward / Risk

0.11

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$94

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	88.6% 15,150W/1,952L	7906	$497,575
🌤 Weather	94.9% 688W/37L	428	$12,606
🏛 Politics	55.6% 65W/52L	247	$14,350
⚽ Sports	76.7% 23W/7L	240	$7,094
🎬 Culture	77.0% 67W/20L	132	$3,085
💵 Economy	46.1% 41W/48L	69	$2,713
🤖 Tech	34.6% 9W/17L	60	$3,353
🔬 Science	100.0% 1W/0L	12	$120
₿ Crypto	100.0% 3W/0L	8	$72

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be New Orleans Pelicans?	Yes	85	0.439	$37.31	$34.74	+1348.7%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be San Antonio Spurs?	Yes	85	0.420	$35.70	$33.12	+1286.0%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Minnesota Timberwolves?	Yes	85	0.420	$35.70	$33.12	+1286.0%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Philadelphia 76ers?	Yes	85	0.415	$35.27	$32.70	+1269.5%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Milwaukee Bucks?	Yes	85	0.398	$33.83	$31.25	+1213.4%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be New York Knicks?	Yes	85	0.392	$33.32	$30.74	+1193.6%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Portland Trail Blazers?	Yes	85	0.355	$30.18	$27.60	+1071.5%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Chicago Bulls?	Yes	85	0.342	$29.03	$26.45	+1026.9%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Cleveland Cavaliers?	Yes	85	0.340	$28.86	$26.28	+1020.3%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Golden State Warriors?	Yes	85	0.220	$18.70	$16.12	+626.0%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Sacramento Kings?	Yes	85	0.130	$11.05	$8.47	+329.0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?	Yes	50	0.132	$6.58	$5.01	+320.8%
Will Oleksandr Svatok win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.331	$6.43	$6.25	+3574.1%
Will Micael win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.306	$5.95	$5.78	+3302.1%
Will Mauricio Pineda win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.306	$5.94	$5.77	+3296.5%
Will Dave Romney win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.296	$5.76	$5.58	+3191.1%
Will Rudy Camacho win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.288	$5.59	$5.42	+3096.7%
Will Birk Risa win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.288	$5.59	$5.42	+3096.7%
Will Tomás Avilés win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.285	$5.54	$5.37	+3067.9%
Will Joel Waterman win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.278	$5.39	$5.21	+2980.2%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	300	0.018	$5.25	$-2.64	-33.5%
Will Robin Jansson win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.270	$5.23	$5.06	+2891.4%
Will Sigurd Rosted win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.256	$4.96	$4.79	+2736.0%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Dallas Mavericks?	Yes	24	0.200	$4.80	$4.07	+560.0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	268	0.018	$4.68	$-2.36	-33.5%