PnL (30d)

−$145

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$13

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

73%

493W / 186L · 473 open

Win Return (30d)

62%

709W / 437L · 6 open

Trades (30d)

1,152

across 219 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

−$1.26

avg win $10 · loss $54

Profit Factor

0.87

$980 won / $1,125 lost

Reward / Risk

0.19

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$170

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	88.6% 15,170W/1,958L	7909	$497,681
🌤 Weather	94.2% 699W/43L	430	$12,683
🏛 Politics	55.6% 65W/52L	247	$14,350
⚽ Sports	78.1% 25W/7L	240	$7,094
🎬 Culture	77.0% 67W/20L	132	$3,085
💵 Economy	46.7% 42W/48L	69	$2,713
🤖 Tech	34.6% 9W/17L	60	$3,353
🔬 Science	100.0% 1W/0L	12	$120
₿ Crypto	100.0% 3W/0L	8	$72

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Cleveland Cavaliers?	Yes	85	0.452	$38.42	$35.84	+1391.6%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Minnesota Timberwolves?	Yes	85	0.440	$37.40	$34.82	+1352.0%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be New York Knicks?	Yes	85	0.433	$36.80	$34.23	+1328.9%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Milwaukee Bucks?	Yes	85	0.426	$36.21	$33.63	+1305.8%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be San Antonio Spurs?	Yes	85	0.415	$35.27	$32.70	+1269.5%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Chicago Bulls?	Yes	85	0.410	$34.89	$32.32	+1254.6%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be New Orleans Pelicans?	Yes	85	0.406	$34.51	$31.93	+1239.8%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Philadelphia 76ers?	Yes	85	0.375	$31.88	$29.30	+1137.5%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Golden State Warriors?	Yes	85	0.220	$18.70	$16.12	+626.0%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Dallas Mavericks?	Yes	24	0.360	$8.64	$7.91	+1088.0%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Portland Trail Blazers?	Yes	85	0.096	$8.16	$5.58	+216.8%
Will Klay Thompson's next team be Sacramento Kings?	Yes	85	0.095	$8.07	$5.50	+213.5%
Will Lalas Abubakar win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.324	$6.28	$6.11	+3490.8%
Will Micael win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.307	$5.97	$5.80	+3313.2%
Will Dave Romney win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.297	$5.77	$5.59	+3196.6%
Will Nkosi Tafari win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.295	$5.74	$5.56	+3180.0%
Will Joel Waterman win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.293	$5.69	$5.51	+3152.2%
Will Birk Risa win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.286	$5.56	$5.39	+3079.0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	300	0.018	$5.25	$-2.64	-33.5%
Will Robin Jansson win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.270	$5.23	$5.06	+2891.4%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	268	0.018	$4.68	$-2.36	-33.5%
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	4	0.977	$3.69	$3.58	+3221.8%
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?	Yes	3	0.988	$3.39	$2.70	+394.0%
Will Zac McGraw win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.162	$3.14	$2.96	+1692.6%
Will David Brekalo win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	19	0.161	$3.13	$2.95	+1687.0%