PnL (30d)

−$17

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$44

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-7.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

39%

176W / 273L · 129 open

Win Return (30d)

44%

247W / 311L · 20 open

Trades (30d)

578

across 207 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$0.11

avg win $1 · loss $1

Profit Factor

0.65

$33 won / $50 lost

Reward / Risk

1.13

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$20

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	42.6% 5,148W/6,941L	5521	$49,095
🎬 Culture	18.9% 33W/142L	164	$743
🏛 Politics	13.8% 12W/75L	153	$924
💵 Economy	19.2% 32W/135L	141	$661
🌤 Weather	22.4% 45W/156L	94	$135
⚽ Sports	30.4% 14W/32L	93	$577
₿ Crypto	62.8% 140W/83L	76	$1,831
🤖 Tech	44.0% 11W/14L	32	$125
🔬 Science	14.3% 1W/6L	11	$81

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	176	0.970	$170.98	$46.78	+37.7%
Will MUNDO-GB win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Yes	3,671	0.015	$55.07	$-189.46	-77.5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	85	0.484	$41.19	$40.34	+4745.0%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	47	0.845	$39.71	$4.26	+12.0%
Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	No	67	0.520	$34.74	$-5.18	-13.0%
Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by at least 16%?	Yes	30	0.969	$29.07	$28.17	+3130.0%
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	No	28	0.998	$27.85	$15.85	+132.1%
Will Justen Glad win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.369	$24.91	$23.56	+1745.0%
Will Kristijan Kahlina win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	54	0.438	$23.49	$22.42	+2087.5%
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by August 16, 2026?	Yes	52	0.450	$23.42	$22.38	+2150.0%
Will Noah Eile win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.321	$21.67	$20.32	+1505.0%
Will Chris Brady win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	54	0.402	$21.56	$20.49	+1907.5%
Will Mauricio Pineda win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.316	$21.30	$19.95	+1477.5%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	No	43	0.495	$21.21	$9.21	+76.8%
Will Big Brother episode not air?	Yes	43	0.485	$21.02	$19.72	+1516.7%
Will Miguel Tapias win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.301	$20.32	$18.97	+1405.0%
Will Luis Barraza win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	54	0.377	$20.22	$19.14	+1782.5%
Will JUUL relaunch Crème Brûlée flavor by 2027?	Yes	55	0.360	$19.78	$1.65	+9.1%
Will Joel Waterman win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.290	$19.57	$18.22	+1350.0%
Will Birk Risa win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.288	$19.47	$18.12	+1342.5%
Will Andreas Maxsø win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.282	$19.03	$17.68	+1309.5%
Will Tristan Blackmon win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.281	$18.97	$17.62	+1305.0%
Will Henry Kessler win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.278	$18.73	$17.38	+1287.5%
Will Dave Romney win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	61	0.295	$17.93	$16.71	+1377.5%
Will Disney say "Valuation" during earnings call?	No	22	0.805	$17.89	$5.89	+49.1%