PnL (30d)

−$21

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$92

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

40%

232W / 351L · 339 open

Win Return (30d)

47%

425W / 476L · 21 open

Trades (30d)

922

across 373 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$0.09

avg win $2 · loss $1

Profit Factor

0.87

$142 won / $163 lost

Reward / Risk

1.73

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$39

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	42.7% 5,207W/6,977L	5553	$49,958
🎬 Culture	19.3% 34W/142L	169	$836
🏛 Politics	13.8% 12W/75L	162	$980
💵 Economy	19.2% 32W/135L	142	$673
🌤 Weather	22.4% 45W/156L	95	$141
⚽ Sports	30.4% 14W/32L	94	$577
₿ Crypto	62.2% 148W/90L	82	$1,920
🤖 Tech	46.2% 12W/14L	37	$164
🔬 Science	14.3% 1W/6L	11	$85

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 15?	Yes	400	0.276	$110.20	$109.40	+13675.0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	112	0.885	$99.03	$14.17	+16.7%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	94	0.976	$91.72	$17.87	+24.2%
Will MUNDO-GB win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Yes	3,671	0.017	$60.58	$-183.95	-75.2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	85	0.484	$41.19	$40.34	+4745.0%
Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	No	67	0.515	$34.41	$-5.52	-13.8%
Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by at least 16%?	Yes	30	0.970	$29.09	$28.18	+3131.7%
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	No	28	0.929	$25.94	$13.94	+116.2%
Will Justen Glad win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.336	$22.65	$21.30	+1577.5%
Will Kristijan Kahlina win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	54	0.415	$22.31	$21.24	+1977.5%
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by August 16, 2026?	Yes	52	0.415	$21.60	$20.56	+1975.0%
Will Chris Brady win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	54	0.399	$21.40	$20.33	+1892.5%
Will Big Brother episode not air?	Yes	43	0.485	$21.02	$19.72	+1516.7%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	No	43	0.485	$20.78	$8.78	+73.2%
Will Luis Barraza win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	54	0.376	$20.19	$19.12	+1780.0%
Will Lalas Abubakar win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.293	$19.81	$18.46	+1367.5%
Will JUUL relaunch Crème Brûlée flavor by 2027?	Yes	55	0.360	$19.78	$1.65	+9.1%
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 3?	No	19	0.995	$18.94	$6.94	+57.9%
Will Miguel Tapias win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.273	$18.39	$17.04	+1262.5%
Will Tristan Blackmon win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.272	$18.36	$17.01	+1260.0%
Will Noah Eile win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.268	$18.06	$16.71	+1237.5%
Will Andreas Maxsø win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.266	$17.92	$16.57	+1227.5%
Will Disney say "Valuation" during earnings call?	No	22	0.804	$17.88	$5.88	+49.0%
Will Joel Waterman win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.262	$17.68	$16.33	+1210.0%
Will Henry Kessler win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.261	$17.62	$16.27	+1205.0%