PnL (30d)

−$66

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$22

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-6.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

44%

200W / 255L · 492 open

Win Return (30d)

52%

479W / 450L · 18 open

Trades (30d)

947

across 312 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$0.43

avg win $1 · loss $1

Profit Factor

0.50

$66 won / $132 lost

Reward / Risk

0.95

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$50

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	42.7% 5,207W/6,977L	5553	$49,958
🎬 Culture	19.3% 34W/142L	169	$836
🏛 Politics	13.8% 12W/75L	162	$980
💵 Economy	19.2% 32W/135L	142	$673
🌤 Weather	22.4% 45W/156L	95	$141
⚽ Sports	30.4% 14W/32L	94	$577
₿ Crypto	62.2% 148W/90L	82	$1,920
🤖 Tech	46.2% 12W/14L	37	$164
🔬 Science	14.3% 1W/6L	11	$85

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 15?	Yes	400	0.262	$104.80	$104.00	+13000.0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	112	0.885	$99.03	$14.17	+16.7%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	94	0.976	$91.72	$17.87	+24.2%
Will MUNDO-GB win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Yes	3,671	0.017	$60.58	$-183.95	-75.2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	85	0.484	$41.19	$40.34	+4745.0%
Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	No	67	0.515	$34.41	$-5.52	-13.8%
Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by at least 16%?	Yes	30	0.969	$29.05	$28.16	+3128.3%
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	No	28	0.929	$25.94	$13.94	+116.2%
Will Justen Glad win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.334	$22.55	$21.20	+1570.0%
Will Kristijan Kahlina win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	54	0.419	$22.50	$21.43	+1995.0%
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by August 16, 2026?	Yes	52	0.415	$21.60	$20.56	+1975.0%
Will Chris Brady win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	54	0.401	$21.51	$20.43	+1902.5%
Will Big Brother episode not air?	Yes	43	0.485	$21.02	$19.72	+1516.7%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?	No	43	0.485	$20.78	$8.78	+73.2%
Will Luis Barraza win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	54	0.377	$20.22	$19.14	+1782.5%
Will JUUL relaunch Crème Brûlée flavor by 2027?	Yes	55	0.360	$19.78	$1.65	+9.1%
Will Lalas Abubakar win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.284	$19.16	$17.81	+1319.5%
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 3?	No	19	0.995	$18.94	$6.94	+57.9%
Will Miguel Tapias win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.275	$18.56	$17.21	+1275.0%
Will Tristan Blackmon win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.273	$18.43	$17.08	+1265.0%
Will Noah Eile win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.266	$17.95	$16.60	+1230.0%
Will Disney say "Valuation" during earnings call?	No	22	0.804	$17.88	$5.88	+49.0%
Will Joel Waterman win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.263	$17.72	$16.37	+1212.5%
Will Andreas Maxsø win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.262	$17.68	$16.33	+1210.0%
Will Henry Kessler win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	68	0.258	$17.38	$16.03	+1187.5%