PnL (30d)

−$189

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$119

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

79%

1,076W / 291L · 840 open

Win Return (30d)

72%

1,573W / 597L · 37 open

Trades (30d)

2,207

across 635 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$0.58

avg win $10 · loss $61

Profit Factor

0.93

$2,677 won / $2,866 lost

Reward / Risk

0.16

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$413

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	83.3% 42,045W/8,403L	15100	$1,233,048
🌤 Weather	93.4% 4,076W/286L	1623	$80,207
🏛 Politics	83.8% 403W/78L	522	$38,727
⚽ Sports	87.6% 156W/22L	368	$27,555
🎬 Culture	84.8% 374W/67L	314	$21,962
💵 Economy	81.4% 175W/40L	225	$20,287
🤖 Tech	42.9% 9W/12L	89	$3,722
₿ Crypto	91.4% 32W/3L	44	$701
🔬 Science	100.0% 2W/0L	17	$820

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Chase Burns win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?	Yes	115	0.045	$5.17	$3.51	+210.5%
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	5	0.981	$4.47	$4.27	+2156.3%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	4	0.902	$3.67	$3.53	+2515.8%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	4	0.875	$3.67	$3.50	+2087.5%
Will Bradley Beal play for the Utah Jazz in 2026-27?	Yes	8	0.410	$3.28	$3.04	+1253.0%
Will Bradley Beal play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?	Yes	8	0.405	$3.24	$3.00	+1236.5%
Will Bradley Beal play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27?	Yes	8	0.365	$2.92	$2.68	+1104.5%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	3	0.870	$2.90	$2.60	+857.0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	3	0.875	$2.87	$2.77	+2699.9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	4	0.685	$2.83	$2.71	+2229.0%
Will Michael Alfonso be the WI-07 Republican nominee?	Yes	3	0.935	$2.51	$2.21	+741.5%
Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?	Yes	3	0.977	$2.48	$2.34	+1658.5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 7?	Yes	5	0.425	$2.25	$1.77	+367.5%
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	4	0.595	$2.23	$1.48	+197.5%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	4	0.545	$2.23	$1.86	+499.5%
Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	Yes	65	0.030	$1.97	$0.79	+67.7%
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?	Yes	2	0.992	$1.94	$1.55	+396.0%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2	0.905	$1.87	$1.84	+6597.0%
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	2	0.855	$1.86	$1.74	+1524.4%
Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	2	0.955	$1.84	$1.74	+1713.5%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	2	0.986	$1.83	$1.78	+3447.8%
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	2	0.965	$1.82	$1.78	+5014.5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	2	0.925	$1.71	$1.65	+2859.9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 7?	Yes	4	0.395	$1.62	$1.24	+334.5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	3	0.545	$1.61	$1.49	+1316.9%