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Trader

0xf5286079ada8dcfeaa44f7f1c87e1ec37c127e5b
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$158
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$5
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+2.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
78%
1,513W / 419L · 56 open
Win Return (30d)
78%
1,548W / 429L · 11 open
Trades (30d)
1,988
across 578 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
+$0.28
avg win $1 · loss $4
Profit Factor
1.40
$555 won / $397 lost
Reward / Risk
0.35
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$15
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $12,272 · all-time $815,133

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 72.0% 9,083W/3,529L 4988 $108,256
🎬 Culture 67.5% 156W/75L 162 $2,072
🏛 Politics 70.1% 108W/46L 156 $2,083
💵 Economy 64.2% 124W/69L 150 $2,004
₿ Crypto 60.6% 94W/61L 112 $1,374
🌤 Weather 86.7% 241W/37L 112 $1,668
⚽ Sports 79.5% 58W/15L 77 $1,334
🤖 Tech 55.8% 29W/23L 45 $505
🔬 Science 100.0% 2W/0L 6 $85

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 17 0.825 $14.29 $-0.09 -0.6%
Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? No 16 0.860 $13.43 $0.52 +4.1%
Will Disney say "Domestic" during earnings call? Yes 12 0.930 $11.17 $1.92 +20.8%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in August? Yes 15 0.735 $10.78 $-0.88 -7.5%
Yo FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 14 0.765 $10.73 $-0.45 -4.0%
Will Rodri stay at Manchester City? No 12 0.831 $10.30 $-0.30 -2.8%
Will Lyon qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? No 11 0.932 $10.25 $1.44 +16.4%
Will "World Cup" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 3? No 11 0.915 $10.06 $0.94 +10.2%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in August? No 11 0.890 $9.79 $0.88 +9.9%
Will Trump say "American Dream" in August? Yes 11 0.885 $9.73 $0.71 +7.9%
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on August 31? No 11 0.875 $9.62 $0.49 +5.4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in August? Yes 11 0.865 $9.52 $0.39 +4.2%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? No 10 0.942 $9.42 $0.56 +6.3%
Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 50k and 60k? No 10 0.939 $9.41 $1.19 +14.5%
Will Disney say "Box Office" during earnings call? Yes 10 0.950 $9.38 $0.99 +11.8%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? No 11 0.850 $9.35 $0.18 +1.9%
Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 10 0.910 $9.10 $0.30 +3.4%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #2 US song this week? Yes 11 0.825 $9.07 $0.16 +1.9%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 11 0.815 $8.97 $0.16 +1.9%
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 12 0.739 $8.87 $0.31 +3.6%
Will Trace Esports be a 2027 VCT CN partner team? No 11 0.800 $8.80 $0.00 +0.0%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings Yes 11 0.800 $8.80 $0.00 +0.0%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? No 9 0.959 $8.61 $0.61 +7.6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 5? No 11 0.775 $8.53 $-0.71 -7.7%
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week? Yes 9 0.905 $8.51 $1.11 +15.0%