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0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$322
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$77
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
78%
1,692W / 484L · 110 open
Win Return (30d)
77%
1,753W / 524L · 9 open
Trades (30d)
2,286
across 788 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
+$0.44
avg win $7 · loss $32
Profit Factor
1.08
$4,312 won / $3,990 lost
Reward / Risk
0.22
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$367
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,768,104 · all-time $579,025,619

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 53.9% 51,603W/44,135L 14054 $6,827,182
⚽ Sports 44.3% 5,823W/7,334L 2021 $732,447
🌤 Weather 81.2% 845W/196L 367 $19,861
🏛 Politics 61.4% 874W/549L 321 $291,011
💵 Economy 62.4% 502W/302L 135 $277,773
🎬 Culture 70.4% 390W/164L 132 $33,960
🤖 Tech 38.8% 26W/41L 37 $6,662
🔬 Science 11 $138
₿ Crypto 3 $28

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 40,253 0.539 $21,716.53 $12,619.02 +138.7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group Gen.G 6,728 1.000 $6,724.25 $2,795.42 +71.2%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 13,639 0.365 $4,978.18 $390.41 +8.5%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 3,945 0.865 $3,412.68 $317.05 +10.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 2,433 0.986 $2,397.78 $3.48 +0.1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7,424 0.278 $2,060.24 $331.59 +19.2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 7,533 0.264 $1,984.97 $1,749.56 +743.2%
FC Gintra-Universitetas vs. Heart of Midlothian LFC: O/U 5.5 Under 3,847 0.506 $1,948.05 $-1,764.17 -47.5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14,104 0.135 $1,896.94 $-44.60 -2.3%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,886 0.996 $1,877.82 $1.38 +0.1%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 3,258 0.555 $1,808.38 $-340.50 -15.8%
Will CSD Tristan Suarez win on 2026-08-02? No 4,420 0.380 $1,679.48 $1,618.86 +2670.5%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 17,168 0.095 $1,622.33 $741.12 +84.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 1,520 0.988 $1,501.00 $-2.28 -0.2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,471 0.999 $1,468.75 $-0.74 -0.1%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs KeepBest Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins TEC Esports 1,381 1.000 $1,380.59 $802.15 +138.7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 2,398 0.465 $1,115.07 $3.01 +0.3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,110 0.924 $1,026.58 $-6.44 -0.6%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 1,292 0.786 $1,016.35 $40.72 +4.2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 2,653 0.355 $941.68 $-28.10 -2.9%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 1WIN 800 1.000 $799.88 $271.13 +51.3%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34,590 0.022 $760.97 $717.63 +1655.8%
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) ZHFK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 674 1.000 $673.62 $154.41 +29.7%
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks 618 1.000 $617.58 $204.86 +49.6%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend JD Gaming 558 1.000 $557.59 $118.04 +26.9%