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cigarettes

0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9
PnL (30d)
−$33,786
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$392
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
54%
51,553W / 44,098L · 10,348 open
Win Return (30d)
54%
56,827W / 48,775L · 397 open
Trades (30d)
105,999
across 14,054 markets · ~8 per market
EV / position
−$2.87
avg win $114 · loss $170
Profit Factor
0.96
$788,809 won / $822,594 lost
Reward / Risk
0.67
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$48,345
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,656,734 · all-time $578,914,249

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 53.9% 51,553W/44,098L 14054 $6,827,182
⚽ Sports 43.8% 6,320W/8,093L 2152 $803,146
🌤 Weather 79.2% 1,081W/284L 455 $26,497
🏛 Politics 63.0% 1,299W/764L 362 $417,252
💵 Economy 63.5% 906W/521L 161 $414,688
🎬 Culture 72.4% 469W/179L 158 $37,982
🤖 Tech 45.3% 58W/70L 44 $8,999
🔬 Science 100.0% 3W/0L 18 $1,703
₿ Crypto 3 $28

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 40,253 0.537 $21,615.90 $12,518.38 +137.6%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 13,639 0.365 $4,978.18 $390.41 +8.5%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 3,945 0.865 $3,412.68 $317.05 +10.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 2,433 0.984 $2,392.91 $-1.39 -0.1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7,424 0.278 $2,060.24 $331.59 +19.2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 7,533 0.261 $1,962.37 $1,726.96 +733.6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14,104 0.135 $1,896.94 $-44.60 -2.3%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,886 0.996 $1,878.76 $2.32 +0.1%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 3,258 0.555 $1,808.38 $-340.50 -15.8%
Will CSD Tristan Suarez win on 2026-08-02? No 4,420 0.377 $1,666.22 $1,605.60 +2648.6%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 17,168 0.095 $1,622.33 $741.12 +84.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 1,520 0.991 $1,505.56 $2.28 +0.2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,471 0.999 $1,468.75 $-0.74 -0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 2,398 0.465 $1,115.07 $3.01 +0.3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,110 0.927 $1,029.91 $-3.11 -0.3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 1,292 0.786 $1,016.35 $40.72 +4.2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 2,653 0.345 $914.89 $-54.89 -5.7%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34,590 0.022 $760.97 $717.63 +1655.8%
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 557 0.980 $545.45 $521.24 +2152.9%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 512 0.999 $511.31 $-0.26 -0.1%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 3,782 0.125 $472.74 $-56.80 -10.7%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group HANJIN BRION 890 0.515 $458.47 $55.46 +13.8%
CA Guemes vs. CSD Tristan Suarez: O/U 3.5 Under 887 0.482 $428.03 $411.60 +2504.3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 826 0.485 $400.42 $-19.98 -4.8%
Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 15? No 400 0.991 $396.40 $-2.80 -0.7%