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cigarettes

0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9
Scoped to Tech — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$1,360
Tech · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$164
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-5.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
64%
310W / 177L · 165 open
Win Return (30d)
59%
385W / 263L · 4 open
Trades (30d)
652
across 109 markets · ~6 per market
EV / position
−$24.72
avg win $18 · loss $196
Profit Factor
0.37
$796 won / $2,155 lost
Reward / Risk
0.09
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$675
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,714,107 · all-time $578,971,623

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 53.9% 51,561W/44,116L 14054 $6,827,182
⚽ Sports 44.3% 5,823W/7,334L 2021 $732,447
🌤 Weather 81.2% 845W/196L 367 $19,861
🏛 Politics 61.4% 874W/549L 321 $291,011
💵 Economy 62.4% 502W/302L 135 $277,773
🎬 Culture 70.4% 390W/164L 132 $33,960
🤖 Tech 38.8% 26W/41L 37 $6,662
🔬 Science 11 $138
₿ Crypto 3 $28

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 40,253 0.540 $21,756.79 $12,659.27 +139.2%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 13,639 0.365 $4,978.18 $390.41 +8.5%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 3,945 0.865 $3,412.68 $317.05 +10.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 2,433 0.983 $2,390.48 $-3.82 -0.2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7,424 0.278 $2,060.24 $331.59 +19.2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 7,533 0.260 $1,958.61 $1,723.20 +732.0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14,104 0.135 $1,896.94 $-44.60 -2.3%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,886 0.996 $1,877.82 $1.38 +0.1%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 3,258 0.555 $1,808.38 $-340.50 -15.8%
Will Inter Milano win on 2026-08-05? Yes 2,393 0.740 $1,770.97 $475.47 +36.7%
Will CSD Tristan Suarez win on 2026-08-02? No 4,420 0.380 $1,679.48 $1,618.86 +2670.5%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 17,168 0.095 $1,630.91 $749.71 +85.1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group Hanwha Life Esports 4,467 0.345 $1,540.52 $-943.25 -38.0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 1,520 0.991 $1,505.56 $2.28 +0.2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,471 0.999 $1,468.75 $-0.74 -0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 2,398 0.455 $1,091.09 $-20.97 -1.9%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,110 0.925 $1,027.69 $-5.33 -0.5%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 1,292 0.786 $1,016.35 $40.72 +4.2%
Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-05? Yes 990 0.989 $978.33 $224.16 +29.7%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 2,653 0.355 $941.68 $-28.10 -2.9%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-05? Yes 967 0.885 $855.38 $229.13 +36.6%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34,590 0.022 $778.26 $734.92 +1695.7%
The Hundred, Women: Manchester Super Giants vs Welsh Fire Welsh Fire 717 0.989 $709.06 $59.31 +9.1%
T20 Lanka Premier League: Jaffna Kings vs Galle Gallants Jaffna Kings 644 0.975 $628.08 $85.74 +15.8%
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Nippon Ham Fighters Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks 618 0.995 $614.49 $201.77 +48.9%