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cigarettes

0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9
Scoped to Science — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$2
Science · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$39
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
67%
4W / 2L · 53 open
Win Return (30d)
43%
25W / 33L · 1 open
Trades (30d)
59
across 25 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
+$0.56
avg win $2 · loss $1
Profit Factor
2.13
$4 won / $2 lost
Reward / Risk
2.13
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,770,118 · all-time $579,025,619

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 53.8% 51,872W/44,498L 14291 $6,875,524
⚽ Sports 44.0% 5,984W/7,629L 2123 $763,487
🌤 Weather 81.2% 845W/196L 367 $19,861
🏛 Politics 61.4% 874W/549L 321 $291,011
💵 Economy 62.4% 502W/302L 135 $277,773
🎬 Culture 70.4% 390W/164L 132 $33,960
🤖 Tech 38.8% 26W/41L 37 $6,662
🔬 Science 11 $138
₿ Crypto 3 $28

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 40,253 0.539 $21,716.53 $12,619.02 +138.7%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 13,639 0.365 $4,978.18 $390.41 +8.5%
FC Gintra-Universitetas vs. Heart of Midlothian LFC: O/U 5.5 Under 3,847 1.000 $3,844.93 $132.72 +3.6%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 3,945 0.865 $3,412.68 $317.05 +10.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 2,433 0.987 $2,400.21 $5.91 +0.2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7,424 0.278 $2,060.24 $331.59 +19.2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 7,533 0.270 $2,033.94 $1,798.53 +764.0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14,104 0.135 $1,896.94 $-44.60 -2.3%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,886 0.996 $1,877.82 $1.38 +0.1%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 3,258 0.555 $1,808.38 $-340.50 -15.8%
Will CSD Tristan Suarez win on 2026-08-02? No 4,420 0.380 $1,679.48 $1,618.86 +2670.5%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 17,168 0.095 $1,622.33 $741.12 +84.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 1,520 0.988 $1,501.00 $-2.28 -0.2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,471 0.999 $1,468.75 $-0.74 -0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 2,398 0.465 $1,115.07 $3.01 +0.3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,110 0.924 $1,026.58 $-6.44 -0.6%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 1,292 0.786 $1,016.35 $40.72 +4.2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 2,653 0.355 $941.68 $-28.10 -2.9%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34,590 0.022 $760.97 $717.63 +1655.8%
Hammarby IF FF vs. FK Apolonia Fier: O/U 4.5 Under 713 1.000 $712.96 $328.28 +85.3%
Will KKS Czarni Sosnowiec win on 2026-08-05? No 684 0.995 $681.00 $79.89 +13.3%
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 557 0.983 $547.12 $522.91 +2159.8%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 512 0.999 $511.31 $-0.26 -0.1%
FC Gintra-Universitetas vs. Heart of Midlothian LFC: O/U 3.5 Under 469 1.000 $468.76 $276.73 +144.1%
CA Guemes vs. CSD Tristan Suarez: O/U 3.5 Under 887 0.504 $447.11 $430.67 +2620.4%