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cigarettes

0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$14,181
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$396
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
62%
2,011W / 1,239L · 1,536 open
Win Return (30d)
59%
2,821W / 1,943L · 22 open
Trades (30d)
4,786
across 240 markets · ~20 per market
EV / position
−$154.14
avg win $350 · loss $1,859
Profit Factor
0.64
$24,868 won / $39,048 lost
Reward / Risk
0.19
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$12,162
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,993,602 · all-time $579,251,117

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 54.1% 50,300W/42,683L 13964 $6,485,759
⚽ Sports 44.3% 6,047W/7,616L 2108 $776,047
🌤 Weather 81.7% 872W/195L 346 $19,401
🏛 Politics 55.6% 738W/590L 307 $264,374
💵 Economy 54.0% 318W/271L 127 $250,995
🎬 Culture 68.4% 374W/173L 120 $33,662
🤖 Tech 38.8% 26W/41L 30 $5,943
🔬 Science 10 $138
₿ Crypto 3 $28

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 39,803 0.552 $21,991.43 $12,995.52 +144.5%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 9,377 1.000 $9,372.57 $425.76 +4.8%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 13,639 0.365 $4,978.18 $390.41 +8.5%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 3,945 0.865 $3,412.68 $317.05 +10.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 2,433 0.986 $2,397.78 $3.48 +0.1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 7,533 0.266 $2,000.04 $1,764.63 +749.6%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,886 0.997 $1,879.71 $3.26 +0.2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14,104 0.132 $1,854.63 $-86.91 -4.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 3,898 0.475 $1,851.55 $49.49 +2.7%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 3,258 0.555 $1,808.38 $-340.50 -15.8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7,424 0.240 $1,785.54 $56.89 +3.3%
Will CSD Tristan Suarez win on 2026-08-02? No 4,420 0.370 $1,637.49 $1,576.87 +2601.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 1,520 0.990 $1,504.04 $0.76 +0.1%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 17,168 0.087 $1,502.16 $620.95 +70.5%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,471 0.998 $1,467.28 $-2.21 -0.2%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend ThunderTalk Gaming 1,070 1.000 $1,069.32 $561.87 +110.7%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Ninjas in Pyjamas 2,032 0.520 $1,056.45 $427.67 +68.0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,110 0.933 $1,036.02 $3.00 +0.3%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group T1 1,030 1.000 $1,029.74 $194.56 +23.3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 1,292 0.786 $1,016.35 $40.72 +4.2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 2,653 0.355 $941.68 $-28.10 -2.9%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs Black Phoenix 820 1.000 $820.09 $508.24 +163.0%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins JD Gaming 794 1.000 $793.27 $179.99 +29.3%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO5) - LCP Group Stage Ground Zero Gaming 765 1.000 $764.14 $254.27 +49.9%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34,590 0.021 $740.22 $696.88 +1607.9%