PnL (30d)

−$212

Sports · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$11

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-41.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

67%

4W / 2L · 4 open

Win Return (30d)

60%

6W / 4L

Trades (30d)

10

across 5 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$70.62

avg win $9 · loss $230

Profit Factor

0.08

$18 won / $230 lost

Reward / Risk

0.04

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$230

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	87.3% 117W/17L	76	$31,775
🏛 Politics	53.8% 7W/6L	21	$6,481
💵 Economy	50.0% 1W/1L	4	$357
⚽ Sports	50.0% 2W/2L	4	$518
🎬 Culture	100.0% 4W/0L	4	$465
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/1L	2	$165

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	1,264	0.840	$1,061.76	$-7.73	-0.7%
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	797	0.949	$755.64	$34.07	+4.7%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	1,100	0.645	$709.50	$18.50	+2.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	762	0.695	$529.43	$-52.58	-9.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	850	0.385	$327.25	$-61.25	-15.8%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	462	0.615	$284.40	$19.89	+7.5%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	No	321	0.525	$168.32	$-4.19	-2.4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	282	0.518	$146.34	$-55.51	-27.5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	249	0.465	$115.78	$-41.00	-26.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	365	0.305	$111.36	$-94.26	-45.8%
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	150	0.660	$99.00	$-11.00	-10.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	1,676	0.040	$67.04	$-49.07	-42.3%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	No	86	0.735	$63.21	$-2.37	-3.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	246	0.195	$47.97	$-84.17	-63.7%
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	63	0.603	$38.18	$-7.95	-17.2%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?	Yes	218	0.150	$32.70	$15.97	+95.5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	No	39	0.705	$27.50	$-0.96	-3.4%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	200	0.130	$26.00	$-45.00	-63.4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	173	0.145	$25.05	$-20.87	-45.4%
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	50	0.034	$1.70	$-8.80	-83.8%