PnL (30d)

+$28

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$268

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+0.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

87%

117W / 17L · 231 open

Win Return (30d)

67%

239W / 118L · 8 open

Trades (30d)

365

across 74 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

+$1.31

avg win $30 · loss $71

Profit Factor

1.06

$455 won / $427 lost

Reward / Risk

0.43

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$394

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	87.3% 117W/17L	74	$31,251
🏛 Politics	53.8% 7W/6L	20	$6,365
💵 Economy	50.0% 1W/1L	4	$357
⚽ Sports	50.0% 2W/2L	4	$518
🎬 Culture	100.0% 4W/0L	4	$465
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/1L	2	$165

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	1,264	0.835	$1,055.44	$-14.05	-1.3%
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	797	0.966	$769.18	$47.62	+6.6%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	1,100	0.655	$720.50	$29.50	+4.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	762	0.695	$529.43	$-52.58	-9.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	850	0.375	$318.75	$-69.75	-18.0%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	457	0.590	$269.89	$8.18	+3.1%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	No	290	0.525	$152.25	$-4.65	-3.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	282	0.510	$144.05	$-57.80	-28.6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	249	0.435	$108.31	$-48.47	-30.9%
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	150	0.670	$100.50	$-9.50	-8.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	365	0.265	$96.75	$-108.87	-52.9%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	No	86	0.730	$62.78	$-2.80	-4.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	1,676	0.036	$61.17	$-54.94	-47.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	246	0.180	$44.28	$-87.86	-66.5%
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	63	0.604	$38.21	$-7.92	-17.2%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	200	0.145	$29.00	$-42.00	-59.2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	No	39	0.690	$26.91	$-1.55	-5.5%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	173	0.125	$21.60	$-24.33	-53.0%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?	Yes	218	0.059	$12.75	$-3.98	-23.8%
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	50	0.034	$1.70	$-8.80	-83.8%