PnL (30d)

−$31

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$42

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

36%

59W / 104L · 51 open

Win Return (30d)

45%

95W / 118L · 1 open

Trades (30d)

214

across 44 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

−$1.00

avg win $33 · loss $25

Profit Factor

0.93

$427 won / $458 lost

Reward / Risk

1.29

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$201

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	52.2% 550W/504L	390	$53,258
💵 Economy	75.0% 3W/1L	11	$872
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/41L	10	$2,183
₿ Crypto	100.0% 3W/0L	10	$871
🎬 Culture	100.0% 3W/0L	4	$540
🤖 Tech	100.0% 3W/0L	2	$80
⚽ Sports	—	1	$368

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

38 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	475	0.550	$261.13	$59.32	+29.4%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	231	0.825	$190.41	$31.16	+19.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	200	0.870	$174.00	$22.00	+14.5%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	201	0.800	$161.07	$42.07	+35.4%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	208	0.725	$151.12	$52.32	+53.0%
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	200	0.570	$114.25	$-1.75	-1.5%
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 4, 2026?	No	146	0.780	$113.50	$22.31	+24.5%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	192	0.400	$76.97	$-32.31	-29.6%
Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by September 21, 2026?	No	150	0.505	$75.81	$61.43	+427.4%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	107	0.625	$66.60	$-0.40	-0.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	100	0.554	$55.41	$-0.52	-0.9%
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	100	0.545	$54.50	$-5.50	-9.2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	Yes	93	0.555	$51.64	$10.86	+26.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	235	0.215	$50.59	$-43.41	-46.2%
Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by September 7, 2026?	No	100	0.490	$49.14	$20.60	+72.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	147	0.315	$46.39	$-34.61	-42.7%
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 3, 2026?	No	40	0.835	$33.80	$0.30	+0.9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?	Yes	110	0.250	$27.39	$-1.10	-3.9%
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	39	0.655	$25.45	$-1.55	-5.7%
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	28	0.725	$20.30	$2.66	+15.1%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	50	0.295	$14.75	$-0.25	-1.7%
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	214	0.066	$14.10	$-8.40	-37.3%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	73	0.175	$12.73	$-11.27	-47.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	Yes	82	0.125	$10.26	$-0.74	-6.7%
Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by August 6, 2026?	Yes	44	0.185	$8.16	$-6.84	-45.6%