PnL (30d)

−$27

Tech · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$44

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

79%

326W / 88L · 367 open

Win Return (30d)

59%

449W / 317L · 15 open

Trades (30d)

781

across 224 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$0.30

avg win $9 · loss $71

Profit Factor

0.96

$749 won / $777 lost

Reward / Risk

0.13

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$159

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	85.6% 34,541W/5,806L	10521	$1,819,717
🌤 Weather	91.4% 4,352W/411L	1563	$54,758
🏛 Politics	78.3% 90W/25L	484	$57,253
⚽ Sports	90.9% 10W/1L	243	$114,777
💵 Economy	75.9% 22W/7L	228	$88,331
🎬 Culture	84.2% 101W/19L	223	$7,057
🤖 Tech	61.5% 32W/20L	109	$3,819
₿ Crypto	72.7% 24W/9L	23	$1,053
🔬 Science	—	15	$154

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.999	$13.98	$0.01	+0.0%
Will Luma AI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.998	$13.96	$-0.01	-0.0%
Will Tencent have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.996	$13.94	$-0.03	-0.2%
Will Ideogram have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.996	$13.94	$-0.04	-0.3%
Will Recraft have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.995	$13.93	$-0.01	-0.1%
Will Meta have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.994	$13.91	$-0.05	-0.4%
Will Microsoft AI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.988	$13.82	$-0.15	-1.1%
Will Black Forest Labs have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.986	$13.80	$-0.17	-1.2%
Will Google have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.985	$13.79	$-0.18	-1.3%
Will SpaceXAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.970	$13.58	$-0.39	-2.8%
Will Reve have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.946	$13.24	$-0.73	-5.3%
Will Alibaba have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.890	$12.46	$2.52	+25.4%
Will ByteDance be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.999	$8.99	$-0.00	-0.1%
Will Anthropic be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.998	$8.98	$-0.01	-0.1%
Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.997	$8.97	$-0.02	-0.2%
Will DeepSeek be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.986	$8.87	$-0.04	-0.5%
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.947	$8.52	$-0.39	-4.4%
Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	16	0.295	$4.72	$4.22	+844.0%
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.275	$3.85	$-0.07	-1.8%
Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	5,029	0.001	$2.51	$-248.93	-99.0%
Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	5,029	0.001	$2.51	$-248.93	-99.0%
Will Sarah Anthony win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	5,029	0.001	$2.51	$-248.93	-99.0%
Will Rashida Tlaib win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	5,029	0.001	$2.51	$-248.93	-99.0%
Will Kristen McDonald Rivet win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	5,029	0.001	$2.51	$-248.93	-99.0%
Will Dana Nessel win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	5,024	0.001	$2.51	$-248.68	-99.0%