PnL (30d)

−$17

Science · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$38

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.0%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

88%

28W / 4L · 34 open

Win Return (30d)

74%

45W / 16L · 5 open

Trades (30d)

66

across 30 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$1.38

avg win $1 · loss $30

Profit Factor

0.45

$13 won / $30 lost

Reward / Risk

0.04

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	85.6% 34,541W/5,805L	10515	$1,819,670
🌤 Weather	91.4% 4,352W/411L	1560	$54,747
🏛 Politics	77.3% 92W/27L	488	$59,782
⚽ Sports	90.9% 10W/1L	251	$115,275
🎬 Culture	84.3% 102W/19L	246	$7,719
💵 Economy	71.8% 28W/11L	237	$88,743
🤖 Tech	59.7% 40W/27L	113	$4,419
₿ Crypto	72.7% 24W/9L	23	$1,053
🔬 Science	—	15	$154

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.999	$13.98	$0.01	+0.0%
Will Luma AI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.998	$13.96	$-0.01	-0.0%
Will Tencent have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.996	$13.94	$-0.03	-0.2%
Will Ideogram have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.996	$13.94	$-0.04	-0.3%
Will Recraft have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.995	$13.93	$-0.01	-0.1%
Will Meta have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.994	$13.91	$-0.05	-0.4%
Will Microsoft AI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.988	$13.82	$-0.15	-1.1%
Will Black Forest Labs have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.986	$13.80	$-0.17	-1.2%
Will Google have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.986	$13.80	$-0.17	-1.2%
Will SpaceXAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.976	$13.66	$-0.31	-2.3%
Will Reve have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.913	$12.78	$-1.19	-8.5%
Will Alibaba have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.890	$12.46	$2.52	+25.4%
Will ByteDance be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.999	$8.99	$-0.00	-0.1%
Will Anthropic be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.998	$8.98	$-0.01	-0.1%
Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.995	$8.95	$-0.04	-0.4%
Will DeepSeek be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.986	$8.87	$-0.04	-0.5%
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.936	$8.43	$-0.48	-5.4%
Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	16	0.330	$5.28	$4.78	+956.0%
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.275	$3.85	$-0.07	-1.8%
Will Amazon have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	11	0.250	$2.75	$2.41	+700.0%
Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	5,029	0.001	$2.51	$-248.93	-99.0%
Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	5,029	0.001	$2.51	$-248.93	-99.0%
Will Sarah Anthony win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	5,029	0.001	$2.51	$-248.93	-99.0%
Will Rashida Tlaib win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	5,029	0.001	$2.51	$-248.93	-99.0%
Will Kristen McDonald Rivet win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	5,029	0.001	$2.51	$-248.93	-99.0%