PnL (30d)

+$1,364

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$309

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+0.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

82%

1,000W / 225L · 3,400 open

Win Return (30d)

61%

2,774W / 1,751L · 100 open

Trades (30d)

4,625

across 1,037 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

+$4.93

avg win $22 · loss $100

Profit Factor

1.35

$5,258 won / $3,894 lost

Reward / Risk

0.22

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$118

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	85.6% 34,541W/5,805L	10515	$1,819,670
🌤 Weather	91.4% 4,352W/411L	1560	$54,747
🏛 Politics	77.3% 92W/27L	488	$59,782
⚽ Sports	90.9% 10W/1L	251	$115,275
🎬 Culture	84.3% 102W/19L	246	$7,719
💵 Economy	71.8% 28W/11L	237	$88,743
🤖 Tech	59.7% 40W/27L	113	$4,419
₿ Crypto	72.7% 24W/9L	23	$1,053
🔬 Science	—	15	$154

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

199 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.999	$13.98	$0.01	+0.0%
Will Luma AI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.998	$13.96	$-0.01	-0.0%
Will Tencent have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.996	$13.94	$-0.03	-0.2%
Will Ideogram have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.996	$13.94	$-0.04	-0.3%
Will Recraft have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.995	$13.93	$-0.01	-0.1%
Will Reve have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.994	$13.92	$-0.06	-0.4%
Will Meta have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.988	$13.82	$-0.13	-1.0%
Will Microsoft AI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.988	$13.82	$-0.15	-1.1%
Will Black Forest Labs have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.986	$13.80	$-0.17	-1.2%
Will Google have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.981	$13.73	$-0.24	-1.8%
Will SpaceXAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.971	$13.59	$-0.38	-2.8%
Will Alibaba have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.890	$12.46	$2.52	+25.4%
Will ByteDance be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.999	$8.99	$-0.00	-0.1%
Will Anthropic be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.998	$8.98	$-0.01	-0.2%
Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.995	$8.96	$-0.04	-0.4%
Will DeepSeek be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.986	$8.87	$-0.04	-0.5%
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	9	0.936	$8.43	$-0.48	-5.4%
Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	16	0.350	$5.60	$5.10	+1020.0%
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	14	0.275	$3.85	$-0.07	-1.8%
Will Amazon have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	11	0.240	$2.64	$2.30	+668.0%
Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	4,254	0.001	$2.13	$-210.57	-99.0%
Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	4,254	0.001	$2.13	$-210.57	-99.0%
Will Sarah Anthony win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	4,254	0.001	$2.13	$-210.57	-99.0%
Will Rashida Tlaib win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	4,254	0.001	$2.13	$-210.57	-99.0%
Will Kristen McDonald Rivet win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	4,254	0.001	$2.13	$-210.57	-99.0%