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Trader leaderboard/ASFYQ78

ASFYQ78

0xeaa9c399e286809191456044e979802a14ce1737
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$314
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$103
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-6.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
10%
38W / 342L · 171 open
Win Return (30d)
8%
38W / 424L · 89 open
Trades (30d)
551
across 168 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$2.71
avg win $1 · loss $3
Profit Factor
0.06
$21 won / $336 lost
Reward / Risk
0.37
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$71
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $83,465 · all-time $852,860

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 4.2% 149W/3,441L 2017 $201,272
🌤 Weather 9.6% 11W/104L 50 $3,473
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/12L 38 $4,381
🎬 Culture 0.0% 0W/14L 26 $3,169
⚽ Sports 0.0% 0W/7L 24 $3,262
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/17L 21 $2,271
₿ Crypto 0.0% 0W/9L 9 $963
🤖 Tech 5 $1,769

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

25 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 76 0.548 $41.59 $-6.18 -12.9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 5? No 41 1.000 $40.58 $12.16 +42.8%
Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2028? Yes 58 0.450 $26.10 $-9.28 -26.2%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? Yes 46 0.495 $22.91 $-0.23 -1.0%
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? Yes 100 0.203 $20.34 $-9.66 -32.2%
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30? No 27 0.635 $17.14 $-2.83 -14.2%
Will Casemiro attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? Yes 76 0.170 $12.92 $-3.04 -19.0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? No 48 0.260 $12.35 $-25.17 -67.1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? Yes 28 0.430 $12.04 $0.28 +2.4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? No 65 0.180 $11.68 $-5.19 -30.8%
Will Ricardo Quaresma attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? No 45 0.240 $10.80 $-6.75 -38.5%
Will Bradley Barcola join Liverpool? No 25 0.416 $10.40 $1.41 +15.7%
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? No 20 0.405 $8.10 $-2.90 -26.4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 6? No 11 0.615 $6.92 $-0.06 -0.8%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of August 3 2026? Yes 8 0.765 $6.11 $4.99 +446.4%
Will Hollie Chadwick win the 2026 Henderson mayoral election? Yes 36 0.135 $4.86 $-12.06 -71.3%
Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? Yes 23 0.185 $4.32 $-4.32 -50.0%
Will LOS Qualify for the CBLOL Split 2 Playoffs No 54 0.045 $2.43 $-9.99 -80.4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? Yes 2 0.480 $1.08 $0.02 +2.1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6? No 2 0.425 $0.96 $-0.21 -18.3%
Will the Colorado 2026 Senate race be within 5%? Yes 30 0.029 $0.89 $-11.41 -92.8%
Will Javokhir Sindarov Win the 2026 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz Tournament No 1 0.620 $0.81 $-0.07 -7.5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1? Yes 4 0.180 $0.72 $-0.24 -25.0%
Will Genmo AI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026? Yes 67 0.003 $0.17 $-24.62 -99.3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 5? Yes 33 0.002 $0.05 $-16.12 -99.7%