| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
373 |
0.830 |
$309.41 |
$36.72 |
+13.5% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
486 |
0.630 |
$306.47 |
$29.47 |
+10.6% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
390 |
0.735 |
$286.39 |
$24.39 |
+9.3% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
633 |
0.405 |
$256.28 |
$-33.71 |
-11.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
423 |
0.575 |
$242.97 |
$17.97 |
+8.0% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
Yes |
365 |
0.665 |
$242.82 |
$10.83 |
+4.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
1,050 |
0.175 |
$183.75 |
$36.75 |
+25.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
544 |
0.305 |
$165.94 |
$-4.06 |
-2.4% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
261 |
0.520 |
$135.55 |
$-4.45 |
-3.2% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
143 |
0.905 |
$129.30 |
$9.30 |
+7.7% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
No |
140 |
0.740 |
$103.60 |
$-10.60 |
-9.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
1,606 |
0.028 |
$44.17 |
$-20.56 |
-31.8% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
44 |
0.988 |
$43.41 |
$3.41 |
+8.5% |
| Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
51 |
0.610 |
$30.90 |
$0.86 |
+2.9% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
40 |
0.760 |
$30.67 |
$1.96 |
+6.8% |