| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
373 |
0.785 |
$292.64 |
$19.95 |
+7.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
486 |
0.590 |
$287.01 |
$10.01 |
+3.6% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
390 |
0.705 |
$274.70 |
$12.70 |
+4.8% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
633 |
0.375 |
$237.30 |
$-52.70 |
-18.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
376 |
0.472 |
$177.87 |
$-9.03 |
-4.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
1,050 |
0.165 |
$173.25 |
$26.25 |
+17.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
544 |
0.305 |
$165.94 |
$-4.06 |
-2.4% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
Yes |
215 |
0.635 |
$136.62 |
$3.62 |
+2.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
261 |
0.520 |
$135.55 |
$-4.45 |
-3.2% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
143 |
0.875 |
$125.01 |
$5.01 |
+4.2% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
No |
140 |
0.720 |
$100.80 |
$-13.40 |
-11.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
1,606 |
0.033 |
$52.20 |
$-12.53 |
-19.4% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
44 |
0.989 |
$43.45 |
$3.45 |
+8.6% |
| Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
51 |
0.680 |
$34.45 |
$4.41 |
+14.7% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
40 |
0.705 |
$28.45 |
$-0.26 |
-0.9% |