| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
373 |
0.845 |
$315.00 |
$42.31 |
+15.5% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
486 |
0.635 |
$308.90 |
$31.90 |
+11.5% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
390 |
0.725 |
$282.49 |
$20.49 |
+7.8% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
633 |
0.415 |
$262.61 |
$-27.39 |
-9.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
423 |
0.573 |
$242.13 |
$17.12 |
+7.6% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
Yes |
365 |
0.660 |
$240.99 |
$9.00 |
+3.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
1,050 |
0.175 |
$183.75 |
$36.75 |
+25.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
544 |
0.305 |
$165.94 |
$-4.06 |
-2.4% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
261 |
0.520 |
$135.55 |
$-4.45 |
-3.2% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
143 |
0.905 |
$129.30 |
$9.30 |
+7.7% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
No |
140 |
0.750 |
$105.00 |
$-9.20 |
-8.1% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
44 |
0.992 |
$43.58 |
$3.58 |
+9.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
1,606 |
0.023 |
$36.94 |
$-27.79 |
-42.9% |
| Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
51 |
0.690 |
$34.95 |
$4.91 |
+16.3% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
40 |
0.765 |
$30.87 |
$2.16 |
+7.5% |