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Trader leaderboard/graynotebook19

graynotebook19

0xcfff4295288ee29f75a38a7028611b7c1e93673d
Scoped to Tech — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$92
Tech · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$41
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
82%
448W / 101L · 352 open
Win Return (30d)
59%
528W / 361L · 12 open
Trades (30d)
901
across 194 markets · ~5 per market
EV / position
+$1.09
avg win $7 · loss $42
Profit Factor
1.22
$514 won / $422 lost
Reward / Risk
0.16
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$48
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $188,122 · all-time $3,807,152

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 90.4% 28,435W/3,031L 13037 $873,231
🌤 Weather 95.3% 2,590W/128L 1315 $52,764
🏛 Politics 82.0% 210W/46L 366 $22,809
⚽ Sports 75.8% 75W/24L 358 $30,128
🎬 Culture 89.5% 342W/40L 256 $15,936
💵 Economy 88.4% 76W/10L 176 $20,034
🤖 Tech 53.7% 36W/31L 82 $5,586
₿ Crypto 82.4% 14W/3L 36 $739
🔬 Science — 28 $392

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 1.000 $39.98 $0.08 +0.2%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 0.998 $39.92 $-0.04 -0.1%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 0.996 $39.84 $-0.08 -0.2%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 0.996 $39.84 $-0.12 -0.3%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 0.995 $39.80 $-0.12 -0.3%
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 0.995 $39.80 $-0.15 -0.4%
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 0.995 $39.80 $-0.16 -0.4%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 0.995 $39.80 $-0.12 -0.3%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 0.993 $39.70 $-0.06 -0.2%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 0.983 $39.32 $-0.60 -1.5%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 0.875 $35.00 $-0.47 -1.3%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 0.680 $27.20 $0.40 +1.5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or below on August 7? No 20 0.999 $19.97 $-0.01 -0.1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 39°C or higher on August 7? No 20 0.998 $19.95 $-0.03 -0.2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 38°C on August 7? No 20 0.997 $19.93 $-0.03 -0.2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 7? No 20 0.995 $19.89 $-0.01 -0.0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 7? No 20 0.989 $19.78 $-0.08 -0.4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 7? No 20 0.985 $19.70 $-0.10 -0.5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 7? No 20 0.945 $18.90 $18.90 +0.0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 7? No 20 0.930 $18.60 $-0.20 -1.1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 7? No 20 0.890 $17.80 $17.80 +0.0%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 40 0.420 $16.80 $-1.37 -7.5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 7? No 20 0.640 $12.80 $12.80 +0.0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 7? No 21 0.575 $12.18 $-0.01 -0.0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on August 6? No 10 0.999 $9.98 $9.98 +0.0%