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Trader leaderboard/graynotebook19

graynotebook19

0xcfff4295288ee29f75a38a7028611b7c1e93673d
Scoped to Sports — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$2,360
Sports · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$362
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-1.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
90%
3,018W / 342L · 2,838 open
Win Return (30d)
80%
4,902W / 1,215L · 81 open
Trades (30d)
6,198
across 1,059 markets · ~6 per market
EV / position
−$5.48
avg win $17 · loss $192
Profit Factor
0.73
$6,491 won / $8,851 lost
Reward / Risk
0.09
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$284
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $234,181 · all-time $3,841,288

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 90.3% 29,459W/3,161L 13594 $912,277
🌤 Weather 95.4% 2,540W/123L 1408 $56,186
🏛 Politics 82.2% 199W/43L 403 $24,149
⚽ Sports 82.3% 65W/14L 351 $33,102
🎬 Culture 88.1% 274W/37L 250 $15,657
💵 Economy 88.6% 70W/9L 187 $22,750
🤖 Tech 51.7% 15W/14L 103 $5,723
₿ Crypto 86.4% 19W/3L 36 $745
🔬 Science 20 $276

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 20 0.998 $19.96 $-0.02 -0.1%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 20 0.997 $19.94 $-0.04 -0.2%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 20 0.997 $19.93 $-0.01 -0.1%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 20 0.997 $19.93 $-0.03 -0.2%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 20 0.997 $19.93 $-0.03 -0.2%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 20 0.996 $19.91 $-0.03 -0.2%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 17 0.996 $16.97 $16.97 +0.0%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 22 0.715 $15.83 $0.23 +1.5%
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30? Yes 29 0.239 $6.86 $2.77 +67.6%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 20 0.285 $5.70 $-4.10 -41.9%
Will Artyom Zdunov win the 2026 Mordovia gubernatorial elections? Yes 4 0.984 $3.95 $3.83 +3145.5%
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 4 0.979 $3.81 $3.69 +3226.8%
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next? Yes 4 0.990 $3.68 $3.55 +2769.5%
Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee? Yes 4 0.730 $3.18 $2.46 +338.0%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? Yes 4 0.835 $3.12 $2.78 +818.5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 4 0.865 $3.11 $2.98 +2408.5%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 4 0.875 $3.08 $2.81 +1038.1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes 3 0.875 $3.06 $2.95 +2699.9%
Will Patricia Mair win the next Salzgitter mayoral election? Yes 174 0.018 $3.04 $-5.24 -63.3%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 40 0.075 $3.00 $1.79 +147.5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 6? Yes 3 1.000 $3.00 $2.73 +999.4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 6? Yes 3 0.895 $2.96 $2.66 +884.5%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 40 0.069 $2.74 $1.53 +126.0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? Yes 4 0.665 $2.66 $2.22 +498.5%
Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? Yes 2 0.985 $2.44 $2.31 +1869.9%