PnL (30d)

−$285

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$126

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

81%

1,030W / 241L · 2,207 open

Win Return (30d)

59%

1,998W / 1,406L · 74 open

Trades (30d)

3,478

across 831 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

−$1.07

avg win $5 · loss $41

Profit Factor

0.80

$1,166 won / $1,451 lost

Reward / Risk

0.12

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$375

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	90.4% 28,380W/3,028L	13022	$872,849
🌤 Weather	95.3% 2,590W/128L	1302	$52,451
🏛 Politics	82.0% 210W/46L	366	$22,809
⚽ Sports	74.5% 70W/24L	357	$30,098
🎬 Culture	89.5% 342W/40L	256	$15,936
💵 Economy	88.2% 75W/10L	176	$20,034
🤖 Tech	53.7% 36W/31L	82	$5,586
₿ Crypto	82.4% 14W/3L	36	$739
🔬 Science	—	28	$392

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	Yes	9	0.695	$6.02	$5.77	+2262.7%
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	10	0.505	$5.05	$0.05	+1.0%
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	10	0.485	$4.85	$1.35	+38.6%
Will Artyom Zdunov win the 2026 Mordovia gubernatorial elections?	Yes	4	0.986	$3.96	$3.84	+3152.1%
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?	Yes	4	0.996	$3.70	$3.58	+2786.9%
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?	Yes	4	0.784	$3.46	$3.19	+1154.4%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	4	0.886	$3.12	$2.85	+1052.4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	3	0.885	$3.09	$2.98	+2731.9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	4	0.835	$3.00	$2.88	+2321.5%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	40	0.075	$3.00	$1.79	+147.5%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	40	0.069	$2.74	$1.53	+126.0%
Will Patricia Mair win the next Salzgitter mayoral election?	Yes	183	0.015	$2.74	$-5.95	-68.5%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	Yes	4	0.670	$2.68	$2.24	+503.0%
Will Dylan Hess win the 2026 PLL Hard Hat Award (SSDM)?	Yes	10	0.255	$2.55	$2.27	+818.0%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	6	0.415	$2.37	$1.85	+356.5%
Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid?	Yes	2	0.958	$2.37	$2.24	+1814.9%
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	3	0.730	$2.21	$1.98	+848.9%
Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	3	0.655	$2.11	$1.71	+424.0%
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	2	0.855	$2.03	$1.96	+2977.9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 6?	Yes	4	0.565	$2.00	$1.68	+521.4%
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?	Yes	2	0.860	$1.98	$1.87	+1704.9%
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?	Yes	304	0.006	$1.98	$-7.53	-79.2%
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000?	Yes	3	0.705	$1.96	$1.56	+393.5%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?	Yes	3	0.736	$1.94	$1.65	+561.9%
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	3	0.595	$1.93	$1.52	+376.0%