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Trader leaderboard/graynotebook19

graynotebook19

0xcfff4295288ee29f75a38a7028611b7c1e93673d
Scoped to Science — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$5
Science · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$11
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
89%
8W / 1L · 78 open
Win Return (30d)
30%
25W / 57L · 5 open
Trades (30d)
87
across 39 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
+$0.78
avg win $1 · loss $2
Profit Factor
3.22
$7 won / $2 lost
Reward / Risk
0.64
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $187,090 · all-time $3,795,427

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 90.4% 28,380W/3,028L 13022 $872,849
🌤 Weather 95.3% 2,590W/128L 1302 $52,451
🏛 Politics 82.0% 210W/46L 366 $22,809
⚽ Sports 74.5% 70W/24L 357 $30,098
🎬 Culture 89.5% 342W/40L 256 $15,936
💵 Economy 88.2% 75W/10L 176 $20,034
🤖 Tech 53.7% 36W/31L 82 $5,586
₿ Crypto 82.4% 14W/3L 36 $739
🔬 Science 28 $392

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 6? No 19 0.998 $18.95 $-0.02 -0.1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 6? No 19 0.995 $18.91 $-0.04 -0.2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 6? No 19 0.995 $18.91 $-0.06 -0.3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on August 6? No 19 0.993 $18.86 $-0.07 -0.4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 6? No 19 0.965 $18.34 $0.10 +0.5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 6? No 19 0.935 $17.77 $-0.66 -3.6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 6? No 19 0.845 $16.05 $16.05 +0.0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 6? No 19 0.685 $13.02 $-0.09 -0.7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 6? No 19 0.535 $10.16 $0.09 +0.9%
Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? Yes 9 0.695 $6.02 $5.77 +2262.7%
Will Dylan Hess win the 2026 PLL Hard Hat Award (SSDM)? Yes 10 0.460 $4.60 $4.32 +1556.0%
Will Artyom Zdunov win the 2026 Mordovia gubernatorial elections? Yes 4 0.986 $3.96 $3.84 +3152.1%
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next? Yes 4 0.996 $3.70 $3.58 +2786.9%
Will Rodri join Real Madrid? Yes 4 0.783 $3.46 $3.18 +1152.8%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 4 0.886 $3.12 $2.85 +1052.4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes 3 0.885 $3.09 $2.98 +2731.9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 4 0.835 $3.00 $2.88 +2321.5%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 40 0.075 $3.00 $1.79 +147.5%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 40 0.069 $2.74 $1.53 +126.0%
Will Patricia Mair win the next Salzgitter mayoral election? Yes 183 0.015 $2.74 $-5.95 -68.5%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? Yes 4 0.670 $2.68 $2.24 +503.0%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? Yes 6 0.415 $2.37 $1.85 +356.5%
Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? Yes 2 0.959 $2.37 $2.25 +1816.9%
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 3 0.730 $2.21 $1.98 +848.9%
Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat? Yes 3 0.655 $2.11 $1.71 +424.0%