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Trader

0xcf279d521e62d60848dbfba1791617dc9a99f35f
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$69
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$18
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-19.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
45%
19W / 23L · 3 open
Win Return (30d)
44%
20W / 25L
Trades (30d)
45
across 27 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$2.89
avg win $11 · loss $11
Profit Factor
0.58
$95 won / $164 lost
Reward / Risk
0.96
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$72
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $10,085 · all-time $109,106

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 57.4% 896W/665L 838 $24,753
⚽ Sports 65.0% 191W/103L 121 $4,987
🏛 Politics 30.0% 6W/14L 23 $483
🌤 Weather 41.4% 12W/17L 21 $330
💵 Economy 33.3% 2W/4L 8 $205
🎬 Culture 71.4% 5W/2L 5 $227
₿ Crypto 0.0% 0W/3L 4 $70
🤖 Tech 0.0% 0W/2L 1 $37

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

76 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Gen.G 66 0.485 $32.03 $-2.97 -8.5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 5? Yes 31 1.000 $30.59 $15.60 +104.0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 5? Yes 31 1.000 $30.59 $15.60 +104.0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 5? Yes 31 1.000 $30.59 $15.60 +104.0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 5? Yes 27 1.000 $27.26 $12.26 +81.7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 5? Yes 27 1.000 $26.78 $11.77 +78.5%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? No 23 0.895 $20.66 $8.65 +72.1%
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? Yes 33 0.615 $20.50 $8.50 +70.8%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 83 0.245 $20.42 $5.42 +36.1%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Yes 28 0.725 $19.99 $-0.01 -0.1%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 28 0.715 $19.86 $-0.14 -0.7%
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? Yes 24 0.797 $19.26 $-0.74 -3.7%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Yes 24 0.795 $19.08 $7.08 +59.0%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 0.5 Over 35 0.505 $17.82 $-0.18 -1.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? Yes 22 0.795 $17.66 $5.67 +47.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? Yes 26 0.655 $17.09 $5.09 +42.4%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? No 18 0.905 $16.45 $4.45 +37.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes 20 0.785 $15.97 $3.97 +33.1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 6? Yes 31 0.495 $15.47 $0.47 +3.1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes 28 0.550 $15.35 $3.35 +27.9%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-05? No 23 0.645 $14.89 $2.88 +24.0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 6? Yes 27 0.555 $14.87 $-0.13 -0.9%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? Yes 21 0.705 $14.84 $2.84 +23.7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6? Yes 33 0.455 $14.84 $-0.16 -1.1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6? Yes 28 0.520 $14.72 $-0.28 -1.9%