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Trader

0xcf279d521e62d60848dbfba1791617dc9a99f35f
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$38
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$13
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-16.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
43%
9W / 12L · 9 open
Win Return (30d)
53%
16W / 14L
Trades (30d)
30
across 17 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$3.49
avg win $5 · loss $8
Profit Factor
0.32
$18 won / $57 lost
Reward / Risk
0.56
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$2
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $10,544 · all-time $109,565

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 57.4% 897W/665L 838 $24,753
⚽ Sports 65.0% 191W/103L 121 $4,987
🏛 Politics 30.0% 6W/14L 23 $483
🌤 Weather 41.4% 12W/17L 21 $330
💵 Economy 33.3% 2W/4L 8 $205
🎬 Culture 71.4% 5W/2L 5 $227
₿ Crypto 0.0% 0W/3L 4 $70
🤖 Tech 0.0% 0W/2L 1 $37

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

71 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 5? Yes 31 1.000 $30.59 $15.60 +104.0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 5? Yes 31 1.000 $30.59 $15.60 +104.0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 5? Yes 31 1.000 $30.59 $15.60 +104.0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 5? Yes 27 1.000 $27.26 $12.26 +81.7%
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? Yes 33 0.750 $25.00 $13.00 +108.3%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-05? No 23 1.000 $23.07 $11.07 +92.2%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Yes 28 0.770 $21.23 $1.23 +6.1%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 83 0.250 $20.83 $5.83 +38.9%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? No 23 0.895 $20.66 $8.65 +72.1%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 28 0.715 $19.86 $-0.14 -0.7%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Yes 24 0.810 $19.44 $7.44 +62.0%
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? Yes 24 0.798 $19.28 $-0.72 -3.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? Yes 26 0.715 $18.65 $6.65 +55.4%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? Yes 22 0.795 $17.66 $5.67 +47.2%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 0.5 Over 35 0.490 $17.29 $-0.71 -3.9%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes 20 0.805 $16.37 $4.37 +36.4%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? No 18 0.890 $16.18 $4.18 +34.8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6? Yes 28 0.565 $15.99 $0.99 +6.6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 6? Yes 31 0.490 $15.31 $0.31 +2.1%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? Yes 21 0.710 $14.95 $2.95 +24.6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 6? Yes 27 0.555 $14.87 $-0.13 -0.9%
Will Donald Trump be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? Yes 100 0.145 $14.55 $8.55 +142.5%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Yes 21 0.695 $14.38 $2.38 +19.8%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No 17 0.845 $14.27 $2.28 +19.0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 6? Yes 32 0.435 $13.88 $-1.12 -7.4%