| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
227 |
0.760 |
$172.31 |
$55.09 |
+47.0% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
234 |
0.660 |
$154.49 |
$27.58 |
+21.7% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
550 |
0.278 |
$152.62 |
$89.43 |
+141.5% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
No |
140 |
0.785 |
$109.89 |
$39.90 |
+57.0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
210 |
0.495 |
$103.95 |
$14.55 |
+16.3% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
209 |
0.410 |
$85.57 |
$29.22 |
+51.9% |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
364 |
0.235 |
$85.48 |
$25.29 |
+42.0% |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? |
No |
115 |
0.710 |
$81.65 |
$39.25 |
+92.6% |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? |
Yes |
150 |
0.355 |
$53.25 |
$8.25 |
+18.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
160 |
0.285 |
$45.58 |
$-17.32 |
-27.5% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Yes |
340 |
0.130 |
$44.20 |
$-29.20 |
-39.8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
130 |
0.325 |
$42.25 |
$-13.65 |
-24.4% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
98 |
0.400 |
$39.13 |
$-4.37 |
-10.0% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
150 |
0.251 |
$37.58 |
$-13.43 |
-26.3% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? |
No |
190 |
0.190 |
$36.10 |
$-57.00 |
-61.2% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
124 |
0.290 |
$35.91 |
$-14.59 |
-28.9% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
220 |
0.135 |
$29.70 |
$-54.71 |
-64.8% |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
31 |
0.595 |
$18.69 |
$8.33 |
+80.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
190 |
0.095 |
$18.05 |
$-2.85 |
-13.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.175 |
$17.50 |
$-36.50 |
-67.6% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
320 |
0.054 |
$17.28 |
$10.69 |
+162.4% |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
180 |
0.095 |
$17.10 |
$-9.90 |
-36.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
100 |
0.160 |
$16.00 |
$-42.00 |
-72.4% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
Yes |
58 |
0.170 |
$9.84 |
$-1.74 |
-15.0% |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31? |
Yes |
320 |
0.021 |
$6.85 |
$-60.65 |
-89.9% |