| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
227 |
0.765 |
$173.44 |
$56.22 |
+48.0% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
234 |
0.680 |
$159.17 |
$32.26 |
+25.4% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
550 |
0.278 |
$152.62 |
$89.43 |
+141.5% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
No |
140 |
0.775 |
$108.49 |
$38.50 |
+55.0% |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? |
No |
115 |
0.750 |
$86.25 |
$43.85 |
+103.4% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
209 |
0.410 |
$85.57 |
$29.22 |
+51.9% |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
364 |
0.230 |
$83.66 |
$23.48 |
+39.0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
150 |
0.440 |
$66.00 |
$3.00 |
+4.8% |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? |
Yes |
150 |
0.360 |
$54.00 |
$9.00 |
+20.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Yes |
340 |
0.150 |
$51.00 |
$-22.40 |
-30.5% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? |
No |
140 |
0.355 |
$49.70 |
$-26.90 |
-35.1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
130 |
0.325 |
$42.25 |
$-13.65 |
-24.4% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
150 |
0.254 |
$38.10 |
$-12.90 |
-25.3% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
124 |
0.305 |
$37.77 |
$-12.74 |
-25.2% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
98 |
0.375 |
$36.68 |
$-6.81 |
-15.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
110 |
0.310 |
$34.10 |
$-13.30 |
-28.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
220 |
0.145 |
$31.90 |
$-52.51 |
-62.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.220 |
$22.00 |
$-32.00 |
-59.3% |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
31 |
0.605 |
$19.01 |
$8.64 |
+83.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
190 |
0.100 |
$19.00 |
$-1.90 |
-9.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
100 |
0.175 |
$17.50 |
$-40.50 |
-69.8% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
320 |
0.054 |
$17.28 |
$10.69 |
+162.4% |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
180 |
0.095 |
$17.10 |
$-9.90 |
-36.7% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
Yes |
58 |
0.170 |
$9.84 |
$-1.74 |
-15.0% |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31? |
Yes |
320 |
0.021 |
$6.85 |
$-60.65 |
-89.9% |