| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
227 |
0.765 |
$173.44 |
$56.22 |
+48.0% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
234 |
0.660 |
$154.49 |
$27.58 |
+21.7% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
550 |
0.276 |
$151.52 |
$88.33 |
+139.8% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
No |
140 |
0.785 |
$109.89 |
$39.90 |
+57.0% |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? |
No |
115 |
0.750 |
$86.25 |
$43.85 |
+103.4% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
209 |
0.410 |
$85.57 |
$29.22 |
+51.9% |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
364 |
0.230 |
$83.66 |
$23.48 |
+39.0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
163 |
0.465 |
$75.59 |
$7.06 |
+10.3% |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? |
Yes |
150 |
0.355 |
$53.25 |
$8.25 |
+18.3% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? |
No |
140 |
0.370 |
$51.80 |
$-24.80 |
-32.4% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Yes |
340 |
0.150 |
$51.00 |
$-22.40 |
-30.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
160 |
0.305 |
$48.80 |
$-14.10 |
-22.4% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
130 |
0.325 |
$42.25 |
$-13.65 |
-24.4% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
150 |
0.249 |
$37.42 |
$-13.57 |
-26.6% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
98 |
0.375 |
$36.68 |
$-6.81 |
-15.7% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
124 |
0.295 |
$36.53 |
$-13.98 |
-27.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
220 |
0.130 |
$28.60 |
$-55.81 |
-66.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
190 |
0.105 |
$19.95 |
$-0.95 |
-4.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.195 |
$19.50 |
$-34.50 |
-63.9% |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
31 |
0.595 |
$18.69 |
$8.33 |
+80.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
100 |
0.175 |
$17.50 |
$-40.50 |
-69.8% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
320 |
0.054 |
$17.28 |
$10.69 |
+162.4% |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
180 |
0.095 |
$17.10 |
$-9.90 |
-36.7% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
Yes |
58 |
0.165 |
$9.55 |
$-2.03 |
-17.5% |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31? |
Yes |
320 |
0.021 |
$6.85 |
$-60.65 |
-89.9% |