| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
227 |
0.765 |
$173.44 |
$56.22 |
+48.0% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
234 |
0.665 |
$155.66 |
$28.75 |
+22.7% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
550 |
0.270 |
$148.50 |
$85.30 |
+135.0% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
No |
140 |
0.785 |
$109.89 |
$39.90 |
+57.0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
210 |
0.490 |
$102.90 |
$13.50 |
+15.1% |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? |
No |
115 |
0.750 |
$86.25 |
$43.85 |
+103.4% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
209 |
0.410 |
$85.57 |
$29.22 |
+51.9% |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
364 |
0.230 |
$83.66 |
$23.48 |
+39.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
160 |
0.355 |
$56.80 |
$-6.10 |
-9.7% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? |
No |
140 |
0.385 |
$53.90 |
$-22.70 |
-29.6% |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? |
Yes |
150 |
0.355 |
$53.25 |
$8.25 |
+18.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Yes |
340 |
0.145 |
$49.30 |
$-24.10 |
-32.8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
130 |
0.325 |
$42.25 |
$-13.65 |
-24.4% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
150 |
0.251 |
$37.58 |
$-13.43 |
-26.3% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
124 |
0.290 |
$35.91 |
$-14.59 |
-28.9% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
98 |
0.365 |
$35.70 |
$-7.79 |
-17.9% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
220 |
0.125 |
$27.50 |
$-56.91 |
-67.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
190 |
0.105 |
$19.95 |
$-0.95 |
-4.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.190 |
$19.00 |
$-35.00 |
-64.8% |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
31 |
0.595 |
$18.69 |
$8.33 |
+80.3% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
320 |
0.054 |
$17.28 |
$10.69 |
+162.4% |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
180 |
0.095 |
$17.10 |
$-9.90 |
-36.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
100 |
0.165 |
$16.50 |
$-41.50 |
-71.6% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
Yes |
58 |
0.165 |
$9.55 |
$-2.03 |
-17.5% |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31? |
Yes |
320 |
0.021 |
$6.85 |
$-60.65 |
-89.9% |