| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
227 |
0.765 |
$173.44 |
$56.22 |
+48.0% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
234 |
0.640 |
$149.80 |
$22.90 |
+18.0% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
550 |
0.237 |
$130.62 |
$67.43 |
+106.7% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
No |
140 |
0.760 |
$106.39 |
$36.40 |
+52.0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
210 |
0.490 |
$102.90 |
$13.50 |
+15.1% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
209 |
0.410 |
$85.57 |
$29.22 |
+51.9% |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
364 |
0.230 |
$83.66 |
$23.48 |
+39.0% |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? |
No |
115 |
0.715 |
$82.22 |
$39.83 |
+93.9% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? |
No |
190 |
0.370 |
$70.30 |
$-22.80 |
-24.5% |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? |
Yes |
150 |
0.365 |
$54.75 |
$9.75 |
+21.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
160 |
0.295 |
$47.20 |
$-15.70 |
-25.0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
130 |
0.325 |
$42.25 |
$-13.65 |
-24.4% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
98 |
0.405 |
$39.62 |
$-3.88 |
-8.9% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
150 |
0.254 |
$38.10 |
$-12.90 |
-25.3% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
124 |
0.265 |
$32.81 |
$-17.69 |
-35.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
220 |
0.110 |
$24.20 |
$-60.21 |
-71.3% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
320 |
0.059 |
$19.04 |
$12.45 |
+189.1% |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
31 |
0.595 |
$18.69 |
$8.33 |
+80.3% |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
180 |
0.095 |
$17.10 |
$-9.90 |
-36.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
190 |
0.090 |
$17.10 |
$-3.80 |
-18.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.170 |
$17.00 |
$-37.00 |
-68.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
100 |
0.145 |
$14.50 |
$-43.50 |
-75.0% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
Yes |
58 |
0.170 |
$9.84 |
$-1.74 |
-15.0% |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31? |
Yes |
320 |
0.021 |
$6.85 |
$-60.65 |
-89.9% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Yes |
49 |
0.135 |
$6.56 |
$-3.93 |
-37.5% |