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Trader leaderboard/Hugin-og-Munin

Hugin-og-Munin

0x8fe730b55cf3468c01a884cfcde79c2dfb4d6c1f
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$164
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$12
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+5.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
61%
399W / 252L · 24 open
Win Return (30d)
61%
408W / 258L · 9 open
Trades (30d)
675
across 413 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
+$0.42
avg win $4 · loss $5
Profit Factor
1.21
$932 won / $768 lost
Reward / Risk
0.73
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$20
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $42,035 · all-time $1,155,531

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 62.2% 6,919W/4,202L 7057 $227,502
⚽ Sports 58.9% 866W/605L 880 $29,250
🏛 Politics 75.0% 18W/6L 106 $1,766
💵 Economy 47.1% 8W/9L 92 $1,127
🌤 Weather 59.5% 47W/32L 83 $558
🎬 Culture 59.4% 19W/13L 48 $1,149
🤖 Tech 28 $622
₿ Crypto 43.8% 7W/9L 20 $199
🔬 Science 5 $32

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No 524 0.959 $502.24 $18.38 +3.8%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No 524 0.890 $466.36 $174.88 +60.0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No 357 0.905 $323.31 $55.38 +20.7%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes 411 0.645 $264.85 $172.36 +186.4%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No 357 0.590 $210.63 $27.10 +14.8%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No 215 0.917 $197.26 $1.85 +0.9%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 207 0.905 $187.34 $1.03 +0.6%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No 357 0.520 $185.77 $-42.53 -18.6%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? Yes 1,071 0.166 $177.32 $15.32 +9.5%
Spread: Toronto Argonauts (-2.5) Calgary Stampeders 256 0.570 $145.89 $21.49 +17.3%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 5.5 Under 214 0.680 $145.26 $-4.55 -3.0%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 196 0.705 $138.26 $62.75 +83.1%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No 215 0.550 $118.25 $40.55 +52.2%
Spread: FC Carl Zeiss Jena (-2.5) Bayer Leverkusen 240 0.490 $117.60 $-9.60 -7.5%
Calgary Stampeders vs. Toronto Argonauts Toronto Argonauts 256 0.455 $116.48 $-3.84 -3.2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No 215 0.540 $116.10 $-23.60 -16.9%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes 454 0.254 $115.17 $17.49 +17.9%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 217 0.515 $111.81 $1.09 +1.0%
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? Yes 166 0.630 $104.65 $43.71 +71.7%
Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? Yes 150 0.640 $96.32 $66.22 +220.0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No 520 0.185 $96.20 $-126.78 -56.9%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Yes 230 0.410 $94.16 $23.21 +32.7%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? No 85 0.991 $84.19 $4.80 +6.0%
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%? Yes 120 0.699 $83.88 $51.48 +158.9%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 97 0.835 $80.87 $52.78 +187.9%