| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
No |
68 |
0.965 |
$65.76 |
$5.76 |
+9.6% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
70 |
0.905 |
$63.77 |
$7.39 |
+13.1% |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? |
No |
72 |
0.875 |
$63.25 |
$3.25 |
+5.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
116 |
0.441 |
$50.94 |
$-8.69 |
-14.6% |
| Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? |
Yes |
60 |
0.716 |
$42.92 |
$-6.05 |
-12.4% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
60 |
0.635 |
$38.10 |
$4.50 |
+13.4% |
| Will Puka Nacua be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? |
No |
42 |
0.898 |
$37.44 |
$-2.98 |
-7.4% |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? |
No |
41 |
0.902 |
$37.12 |
$14.58 |
+64.7% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026? |
No |
31 |
0.991 |
$30.40 |
$0.40 |
+1.3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 6? |
No |
33 |
0.915 |
$30.09 |
$0.09 |
+0.3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 5? |
Yes |
38 |
0.800 |
$30.00 |
$3.00 |
+11.1% |
| Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
33 |
0.875 |
$28.94 |
$3.94 |
+15.7% |
| Will Josh Allen be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? |
No |
43 |
0.670 |
$28.65 |
$-13.64 |
-32.2% |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? |
No |
29 |
0.985 |
$28.61 |
$2.42 |
+9.2% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
33 |
0.825 |
$27.55 |
$2.56 |
+10.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
30 |
0.805 |
$24.49 |
$6.45 |
+35.7% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
60 |
0.356 |
$21.39 |
$-0.75 |
-3.4% |
| Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
No |
34 |
0.615 |
$20.65 |
$-0.17 |
-0.8% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
No |
60 |
0.335 |
$20.10 |
$0.90 |
+4.7% |
| Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election? |
Yes |
20 |
0.985 |
$19.70 |
$1.10 |
+5.9% |
| Will Kelly Ayotte win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Republican primary election? |
Yes |
20 |
0.960 |
$19.41 |
$2.02 |
+11.6% |
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
31 |
0.615 |
$19.31 |
$-5.69 |
-22.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
264 |
0.070 |
$18.48 |
$-38.16 |
-67.4% |
| Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? |
Yes |
59 |
0.309 |
$18.13 |
$-19.37 |
-51.6% |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? |
Yes |
20 |
0.885 |
$17.93 |
$2.53 |
+16.4% |