| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
70 |
0.915 |
$64.47 |
$8.10 |
+14.4% |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? |
No |
72 |
0.875 |
$63.25 |
$3.25 |
+5.4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 5? |
No |
61 |
0.994 |
$60.33 |
$0.33 |
+0.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
111 |
0.399 |
$44.13 |
$-12.97 |
-22.7% |
| Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? |
Yes |
60 |
0.716 |
$42.92 |
$-6.05 |
-12.4% |
| Will Josh Allen be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? |
No |
43 |
0.943 |
$40.31 |
$-1.98 |
-4.7% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
60 |
0.635 |
$38.10 |
$4.50 |
+13.4% |
| Will Puka Nacua be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? |
No |
42 |
0.899 |
$37.46 |
$-2.96 |
-7.3% |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? |
No |
41 |
0.903 |
$37.14 |
$14.60 |
+64.8% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026? |
No |
31 |
0.961 |
$29.46 |
$-0.54 |
-1.8% |
| Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
33 |
0.875 |
$28.94 |
$3.94 |
+15.7% |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? |
No |
29 |
0.985 |
$28.61 |
$2.42 |
+9.2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 6? |
No |
33 |
0.850 |
$27.95 |
$-2.05 |
-6.8% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
33 |
0.824 |
$27.51 |
$2.52 |
+10.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
30 |
0.840 |
$25.55 |
$7.51 |
+41.7% |
| Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
No |
34 |
0.730 |
$24.51 |
$3.69 |
+17.7% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
No |
60 |
0.365 |
$21.90 |
$2.70 |
+14.1% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
264 |
0.080 |
$21.12 |
$-35.52 |
-62.7% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
60 |
0.349 |
$20.97 |
$-1.17 |
-5.3% |
| Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election? |
Yes |
20 |
0.985 |
$19.70 |
$1.10 |
+5.9% |
| Will Kelly Ayotte win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Republican primary election? |
Yes |
20 |
0.956 |
$19.33 |
$1.94 |
+11.2% |
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
31 |
0.615 |
$19.31 |
$-5.69 |
-22.8% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
21 |
0.900 |
$19.10 |
$1.46 |
+8.3% |
| Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? |
Yes |
59 |
0.309 |
$18.13 |
$-19.37 |
-51.6% |
| Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.905 |
$17.99 |
$1.89 |
+11.7% |