PnL (30d)

−$160

Tech · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$187

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-55.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

15%

26W / 151L · 57 open

Win Return (30d)

26%

61W / 170L · 3 open

Trades (30d)

234

across 44 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

−$7.62

avg win $6 · loss $11

Profit Factor

0.12

$22 won / $182 lost

Reward / Risk

0.52

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$3

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	25.9% 151W/432L	212	$2,086
💵 Economy	25.0% 2W/6L	18	$209
₿ Crypto	25.0% 2W/6L	16	$192
🏛 Politics	—	9	$48
🤖 Tech	0.0% 0W/3L	5	$7
🌤 Weather	—	1	$0
🔬 Science	—	1	$0

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

125 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	689	0.289	$199.52	$19.28	+10.7%
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	2,183	0.078	$170.24	$-7.09	-4.0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026?	Yes	300	0.504	$151.20	$147.60	+4100.0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	600	0.095	$57.02	$-107.02	-65.2%
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	1,557	0.035	$55.12	$-20.82	-27.4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	967	0.043	$41.95	$10.15	+31.9%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?	Yes	205	0.183	$37.54	$-7.77	-17.2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August?	Yes	600	0.062	$37.50	$14.88	+65.8%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of August 3 2026?	Yes	30	1.000	$29.98	$22.53	+302.1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?	Yes	170	0.144	$24.48	$9.48	+63.2%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	85	0.285	$24.21	$-3.98	-14.1%
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	156	0.115	$17.94	$-9.66	-35.0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August?	Yes	45	0.315	$14.17	$6.97	+96.9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	50	0.265	$13.25	$-0.25	-1.9%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?	Yes	567	0.022	$12.76	$3.83	+42.9%
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	1,263	0.010	$12.63	$-5.69	-31.1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	100	0.125	$12.50	$2.10	+20.2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	173	0.051	$8.78	$-0.24	-2.7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?	Yes	125	0.059	$7.44	$-0.91	-10.9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	158	0.041	$6.48	$-2.92	-31.1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	78	0.075	$5.85	$-5.35	-47.8%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of August 3 2026?	Yes	90	0.058	$5.17	$4.27	+469.4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on August 5?	Yes	170	0.030	$5.10	$1.97	+62.9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of August 3 2026?	Yes	54	0.093	$5.10	$-6.45	-55.9%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of August 3 2026?	Yes	25	0.202	$5.05	$4.13	+447.3%