PnL (30d)

−$11

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$8

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-15.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

28%

7W / 18L · 45 open

Win Return (30d)

43%

30W / 40L

Trades (30d)

70

across 30 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$2.11

avg win $2 · loss $9

Profit Factor

0.38

$6 won / $17 lost

Reward / Risk

0.25

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	28.1% 169W/432L	212	$2,086
💵 Economy	50.0% 6W/6L	18	$209
₿ Crypto	50.0% 6W/6L	16	$192
🏛 Politics	—	9	$48
🤖 Tech	0.0% 0W/3L	5	$7
🌤 Weather	—	1	$0
🔬 Science	—	1	$0

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

122 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	689	0.286	$197.04	$16.80	+9.3%
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	2,183	0.078	$170.24	$-7.09	-4.0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026?	Yes	145	1.000	$144.94	$143.20	+8229.2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August?	Yes	535	0.169	$90.15	$69.98	+347.0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	600	0.095	$57.02	$-107.02	-65.2%
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	1,557	0.035	$53.72	$-22.22	-29.3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?	Yes	165	0.293	$48.43	$33.87	+232.6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?	Yes	250	0.180	$45.16	$-15.16	-25.1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	967	0.042	$40.59	$8.80	+27.7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August?	Yes	45	0.570	$25.64	$18.44	+256.2%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	85	0.285	$24.21	$-3.98	-14.1%
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	156	0.115	$17.94	$-9.66	-35.0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?	Yes	567	0.025	$14.40	$5.47	+61.3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	50	0.260	$13.00	$-0.50	-3.7%
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	1,263	0.010	$12.63	$-5.69	-31.1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	100	0.125	$12.50	$2.10	+20.2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	173	0.050	$8.63	$-0.40	-4.4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?	Yes	125	0.060	$7.50	$-0.85	-10.2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	158	0.040	$6.24	$-3.16	-33.6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of August 3 2026?	Yes	54	0.110	$6.00	$-5.55	-48.1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	78	0.075	$5.85	$-5.35	-47.8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?	Yes	50	0.095	$4.75	$-0.75	-13.6%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	60	0.075	$4.50	$-6.20	-58.0%
Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	681	0.006	$4.08	$-3.91	-48.9%
Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	612	0.006	$3.67	$-0.83	-18.4%