PnL (30d)

−$46

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$25

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-13.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

34%

40W / 76L · 61 open

Win Return (30d)

45%

79W / 98L

Trades (30d)

177

across 53 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$1.30

avg win $7 · loss $4

Profit Factor

0.58

$64 won / $109 lost

Reward / Risk

1.68

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$7

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	25.9% 151W/432L	212	$2,086
💵 Economy	25.0% 2W/6L	18	$209
₿ Crypto	25.0% 2W/6L	16	$192
🏛 Politics	—	9	$48
🤖 Tech	0.0% 0W/3L	5	$7
🌤 Weather	—	1	$0
🔬 Science	—	1	$0

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

125 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	689	0.289	$199.52	$19.28	+10.7%
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	2,183	0.079	$171.33	$-6.00	-3.4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026?	Yes	300	0.469	$140.70	$137.10	+3808.3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	600	0.095	$57.02	$-107.02	-65.2%
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	1,557	0.035	$55.12	$-20.82	-27.4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	967	0.043	$41.95	$10.15	+31.9%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?	Yes	205	0.188	$38.46	$-6.85	-15.1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August?	Yes	600	0.060	$36.30	$13.68	+60.5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of August 3 2026?	Yes	30	1.000	$29.98	$22.53	+302.1%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	85	0.285	$24.21	$-3.98	-14.1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?	Yes	170	0.142	$24.12	$9.12	+60.8%
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	156	0.115	$17.94	$-9.66	-35.0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August?	Yes	45	0.315	$14.17	$6.97	+96.9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	50	0.265	$13.25	$-0.25	-1.9%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?	Yes	567	0.022	$12.76	$3.83	+42.9%
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	1,263	0.010	$12.63	$-5.69	-31.1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	100	0.125	$12.50	$2.10	+20.2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	173	0.051	$8.78	$-0.24	-2.7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?	Yes	125	0.059	$7.44	$-0.91	-10.9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	158	0.041	$6.40	$-3.00	-31.9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on August 5?	Yes	170	0.035	$6.02	$2.89	+92.3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	78	0.075	$5.85	$-5.35	-47.8%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of August 3 2026?	Yes	25	0.201	$5.01	$4.09	+443.2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of August 3 2026?	Yes	54	0.089	$4.88	$-6.67	-57.7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?	Yes	50	0.095	$4.75	$-0.75	-13.6%