| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
87,092 |
0.950 |
$82,737.48 |
$6,048.37 |
+7.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
43,760 |
0.998 |
$43,650.16 |
$1,822.59 |
+4.4% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
31,259 |
0.920 |
$28,758.36 |
$1,798.68 |
+6.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
30,626 |
0.890 |
$27,257.57 |
$3,585.26 |
+15.1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
24,959 |
0.945 |
$23,585.98 |
$3,355.10 |
+16.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
25,196 |
0.845 |
$21,290.94 |
$1,010.05 |
+5.0% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? |
No |
20,260 |
0.971 |
$19,662.32 |
$1,211.14 |
+6.6% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
22,223 |
0.875 |
$19,445.50 |
$1,531.97 |
+8.6% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? |
No |
20,644 |
0.905 |
$18,682.86 |
$2,081.58 |
+12.5% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
14,695 |
0.964 |
$14,165.84 |
$440.86 |
+3.2% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
8,357 |
0.993 |
$8,293.99 |
$665.12 |
+8.7% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? |
No |
7,567 |
0.955 |
$7,222.28 |
$660.30 |
+10.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
7,128 |
0.875 |
$6,236.90 |
$1,204.92 |
+23.9% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
6,385 |
0.924 |
$5,902.71 |
$27.72 |
+0.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
6,029 |
0.795 |
$4,793.29 |
$1,194.94 |
+33.2% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
16,396 |
0.261 |
$4,271.17 |
$-62.76 |
-1.4% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
No |
4,519 |
0.855 |
$3,863.97 |
$73.97 |
+2.0% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? |
No |
3,012 |
0.985 |
$2,967.05 |
$177.05 |
+6.3% |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? |
No |
3,018 |
0.920 |
$2,776.82 |
$159.83 |
+6.1% |
| Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? |
Yes |
2,428 |
0.825 |
$2,002.85 |
$102.23 |
+5.4% |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
2,122 |
0.590 |
$1,252.13 |
$-123.38 |
-9.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
1,336 |
0.895 |
$1,196.05 |
$20.05 |
+1.7% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? |
No |
1,006 |
0.925 |
$930.33 |
$151.96 |
+19.5% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
1,323 |
0.660 |
$873.13 |
$-37.87 |
-4.2% |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026? |
No |
890 |
0.935 |
$831.68 |
$75.68 |
+10.0% |