| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
96,827 |
0.955 |
$92,470.17 |
$6,450.16 |
+7.5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
54,715 |
0.855 |
$46,781.50 |
$1,409.68 |
+3.1% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
31,259 |
0.920 |
$28,758.36 |
$1,798.68 |
+6.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
30,626 |
0.920 |
$28,176.36 |
$4,504.05 |
+19.0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
24,959 |
0.944 |
$23,548.54 |
$3,317.66 |
+16.4% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? |
No |
20,260 |
0.976 |
$19,763.62 |
$1,312.44 |
+7.1% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
22,223 |
0.875 |
$19,445.50 |
$1,531.97 |
+8.6% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? |
No |
20,644 |
0.905 |
$18,682.86 |
$2,081.58 |
+12.5% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
14,695 |
0.973 |
$14,290.75 |
$565.77 |
+4.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
12,167 |
0.900 |
$10,950.22 |
$1,415.27 |
+14.8% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
8,357 |
0.996 |
$8,319.06 |
$690.18 |
+9.0% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? |
No |
7,567 |
0.962 |
$7,279.03 |
$717.04 |
+10.9% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
25,991 |
0.271 |
$7,043.68 |
$172.79 |
+2.5% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
6,385 |
0.925 |
$5,909.10 |
$34.11 |
+0.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
6,029 |
0.815 |
$4,913.27 |
$1,314.92 |
+36.5% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
No |
4,519 |
0.855 |
$3,863.97 |
$73.97 |
+2.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
3,744 |
0.910 |
$3,407.09 |
$40.09 |
+1.2% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? |
No |
3,012 |
0.984 |
$2,962.53 |
$172.53 |
+6.2% |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? |
No |
3,018 |
0.925 |
$2,791.91 |
$174.92 |
+6.7% |
| Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? |
Yes |
2,428 |
0.825 |
$2,002.85 |
$102.23 |
+5.4% |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
1,972 |
0.565 |
$1,114.12 |
$-164.17 |
-12.8% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? |
No |
1,006 |
0.925 |
$930.33 |
$151.96 |
+19.5% |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026? |
No |
890 |
0.935 |
$831.68 |
$75.68 |
+10.0% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
1,323 |
0.595 |
$787.14 |
$-123.86 |
-13.6% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
Yes |
769 |
0.820 |
$630.51 |
$10.51 |
+1.7% |