PnL (30d)

−$517

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$37

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-23.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

64%

48W / 27L · 33 open

Win Return (30d)

53%

56W / 50L · 2 open

Trades (30d)

108

across 31 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$36.94

avg win $10 · loss $83

Profit Factor

0.11

$67 won / $584 lost

Reward / Risk

0.11

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$536

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	49.7% 97W/98L	84	$3,588
🏛 Politics	36.4% 12W/21L	11	$1,134
🎬 Culture	66.7% 12W/6L	3	$251
🌤 Weather	—	1	$1
🔬 Science	—	1	$1

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

52 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	259	0.250	$64.74	$-1.50	-2.3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	44	0.963	$42.27	$-0.31	-0.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	45	0.845	$38.12	$5.51	+16.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	177	0.080	$14.17	$-16.24	-53.4%
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	10	0.966	$9.93	$-0.04	-0.4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	No	9	0.990	$8.74	$0.93	+11.8%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	8	0.962	$7.68	$0.38	+5.2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	27	0.255	$6.98	$-1.78	-20.3%
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	9	0.606	$5.69	$2.08	+57.7%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	6	0.905	$5.29	$0.15	+2.8%
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	7	0.675	$5.00	$-1.15	-18.7%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	25	0.195	$4.91	$-17.98	-78.6%
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	34	0.135	$4.64	$-3.19	-40.7%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	5	0.805	$3.83	$2.83	+283.3%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	31	0.125	$3.81	$-1.19	-23.7%
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	15	0.210	$3.14	$-5.08	-61.8%
Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31?	Yes	3	0.930	$3.06	$1.06	+53.2%
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	6	0.485	$3.04	$0.78	+34.7%
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	14	0.165	$2.36	$1.36	+135.7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	59	0.036	$2.13	$-6.16	-74.3%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	12	0.170	$2.00	$-1.80	-47.3%
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	2	0.798	$1.84	$-0.16	-8.2%
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	4	0.435	$1.58	$-0.42	-21.2%
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	43	0.034	$1.48	$0.48	+47.8%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	36	0.037	$1.34	$-8.46	-86.3%