PnL (30d)

+$19

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+2.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

52%

33W / 31L · 6 open

Win Return (30d)

49%

34W / 36L

Trades (30d)

70

across 14 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

+$1.75

avg win $9 · loss $3

Profit Factor

2.03

$38 won / $19 lost

Reward / Risk

3.56

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$1

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	49.7% 97W/98L	84	$3,588
🏛 Politics	36.4% 12W/21L	11	$1,134
🎬 Culture	66.7% 12W/6L	3	$251
🌤 Weather	—	1	$1
🔬 Science	—	1	$1

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

52 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	259	0.245	$63.45	$-2.79	-4.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	44	0.963	$42.27	$-0.31	-0.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	45	0.835	$37.67	$5.06	+15.5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	177	0.070	$12.40	$-18.01	-59.2%
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	10	0.966	$9.93	$-0.04	-0.4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	No	9	0.990	$8.74	$0.93	+11.8%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	8	0.962	$7.68	$0.38	+5.2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	27	0.255	$6.98	$-1.78	-20.3%
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	9	0.606	$5.69	$2.08	+57.7%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	6	0.905	$5.29	$0.15	+2.8%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	25	0.205	$5.16	$-17.73	-77.5%
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	7	0.675	$5.00	$-1.15	-18.7%
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	34	0.130	$4.47	$-3.36	-42.9%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	31	0.125	$3.81	$-1.19	-23.7%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	5	0.795	$3.79	$2.79	+278.6%
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	15	0.210	$3.14	$-5.08	-61.8%
Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31?	Yes	3	0.930	$3.06	$1.06	+53.2%
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	6	0.485	$3.04	$0.78	+34.7%
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	14	0.155	$2.21	$1.21	+121.4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	59	0.034	$2.02	$-6.28	-75.7%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	12	0.170	$2.00	$-1.80	-47.3%
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	2	0.798	$1.84	$-0.16	-8.2%
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	4	0.435	$1.58	$-0.42	-21.2%
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	43	0.034	$1.48	$0.48	+47.8%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	36	0.037	$1.34	$-8.46	-86.3%