PnL (30d)

−$719

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$52

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-22.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

50%

97W / 98L · 64 open

Win Return (30d)

45%

116W / 139L · 4 open

Trades (30d)

259

across 84 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$15.29

avg win $5 · loss $32

Profit Factor

0.13

$111 won / $829 lost

Reward / Risk

0.17

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$613

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	49.7% 97W/98L	84	$3,588
🏛 Politics	36.4% 12W/21L	12	$1,135
🎬 Culture	66.7% 12W/6L	4	$252
🌤 Weather	—	1	$1
🔬 Science	—	1	$1

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

52 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	259	0.250	$64.74	$-1.50	-2.3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	44	0.959	$42.10	$-0.48	-1.1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	45	0.835	$37.67	$5.06	+15.5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	177	0.080	$14.17	$-16.24	-53.4%
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	10	0.966	$9.93	$-0.04	-0.4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	No	9	0.987	$8.71	$0.90	+11.6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	8	0.963	$7.68	$0.38	+5.2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	27	0.255	$6.98	$-1.78	-20.3%
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	9	0.606	$5.69	$2.08	+57.7%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	25	0.215	$5.41	$-17.48	-76.4%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	6	0.905	$5.29	$0.15	+2.8%
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	7	0.695	$5.15	$-1.00	-16.3%
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	34	0.130	$4.47	$-3.36	-42.9%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	31	0.125	$3.81	$-1.19	-23.7%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	5	0.785	$3.74	$2.74	+273.8%
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	15	0.215	$3.21	$-5.01	-60.9%
Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31?	Yes	3	0.930	$3.06	$1.06	+53.2%
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	6	0.485	$3.04	$0.78	+34.7%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	12	0.170	$2.00	$-1.80	-47.3%
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	14	0.135	$1.93	$0.93	+92.9%
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	2	0.805	$1.85	$-0.15	-7.4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	59	0.031	$1.84	$-6.46	-77.9%
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	4	0.430	$1.56	$-0.44	-22.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	36	0.041	$1.49	$-8.31	-84.8%
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	43	0.034	$1.48	$0.48	+47.8%