| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
8,985 |
0.979 |
$8,791.62 |
$4,299.23 |
+95.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
26,661 |
0.028 |
$733.18 |
$-775.04 |
-51.4% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
No |
1,801 |
0.330 |
$594.32 |
$198.71 |
+50.2% |
| Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
Yes |
1,236 |
0.360 |
$445.09 |
$-183.97 |
-29.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
2,579 |
0.170 |
$438.50 |
$-642.95 |
-59.5% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
No |
3,077 |
0.111 |
$341.51 |
$143.94 |
+72.9% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
833 |
0.235 |
$195.75 |
$-20.82 |
-9.6% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
8,985 |
0.021 |
$192.27 |
$-4,300.12 |
-95.7% |
| Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? |
Yes |
424 |
0.170 |
$72.12 |
$-25.45 |
-26.1% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.013 |
$54.00 |
$-178.00 |
-76.7% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? |
Yes |
537 |
0.083 |
$44.32 |
$-26.40 |
-37.3% |
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? |
No |
1,140 |
0.025 |
$28.49 |
$-19.65 |
-40.8% |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? |
No |
516 |
0.029 |
$15.22 |
$-5.18 |
-25.4% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
4,679 |
0.001 |
$2.34 |
$-933.52 |
-99.8% |
| Will John Stevens win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
1,044 |
0.001 |
$0.52 |
$-1.10 |
-67.9% |
| Will Andrew Pemberton win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
579 |
0.001 |
$0.29 |
$-0.69 |
-70.4% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
399 |
0.001 |
$0.20 |
$-78.34 |
-99.7% |