| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
8,985 |
0.979 |
$8,791.62 |
$4,299.23 |
+95.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
26,661 |
0.036 |
$959.80 |
$-548.42 |
-36.4% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
No |
1,801 |
0.330 |
$594.32 |
$198.71 |
+50.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
2,579 |
0.195 |
$502.98 |
$-578.47 |
-53.5% |
| Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
Yes |
1,236 |
0.355 |
$438.91 |
$-190.15 |
-30.2% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
No |
3,077 |
0.112 |
$344.58 |
$147.02 |
+74.4% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
833 |
0.235 |
$195.75 |
$-20.82 |
-9.6% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
8,985 |
0.021 |
$192.27 |
$-4,300.12 |
-95.7% |
| Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? |
Yes |
424 |
0.210 |
$89.09 |
$-8.48 |
-8.7% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.013 |
$54.00 |
$-178.00 |
-76.7% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? |
Yes |
537 |
0.076 |
$40.83 |
$-29.89 |
-42.3% |
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? |
No |
1,140 |
0.025 |
$28.49 |
$-19.65 |
-40.8% |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? |
No |
516 |
0.030 |
$15.47 |
$-4.92 |
-24.1% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
4,679 |
0.003 |
$11.70 |
$-924.16 |
-98.8% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
399 |
0.004 |
$1.60 |
$-76.95 |
-98.0% |
| Will John Stevens win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
1,044 |
0.001 |
$0.52 |
$-1.10 |
-67.9% |
| Will Andrew Pemberton win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
579 |
0.001 |
$0.29 |
$-0.69 |
-70.4% |