| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
8,985 |
0.978 |
$8,782.64 |
$4,290.24 |
+95.5% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
26,661 |
0.031 |
$826.50 |
$-681.73 |
-45.2% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
No |
1,801 |
0.330 |
$594.32 |
$198.71 |
+50.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
2,579 |
0.215 |
$554.57 |
$-526.88 |
-48.7% |
| Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
Yes |
1,236 |
0.360 |
$445.09 |
$-183.97 |
-29.2% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
No |
3,077 |
0.107 |
$330.74 |
$133.17 |
+67.4% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
8,985 |
0.022 |
$202.16 |
$-4,290.24 |
-95.5% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
833 |
0.235 |
$195.75 |
$-20.82 |
-9.6% |
| Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? |
Yes |
424 |
0.220 |
$93.33 |
$-4.24 |
-4.3% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.013 |
$54.00 |
$-178.00 |
-76.7% |
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? |
No |
1,140 |
0.025 |
$28.94 |
$-19.19 |
-39.9% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? |
Yes |
537 |
0.046 |
$24.71 |
$-46.01 |
-65.1% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
4,679 |
0.004 |
$16.38 |
$-919.48 |
-98.2% |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? |
No |
516 |
0.029 |
$14.70 |
$-5.69 |
-27.9% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
399 |
0.004 |
$1.60 |
$-76.95 |
-98.0% |
| Will John Stevens win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
1,044 |
0.001 |
$0.52 |
$-1.10 |
-67.9% |
| Will Andrew Pemberton win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
579 |
0.001 |
$0.29 |
$-0.69 |
-70.4% |