| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
8,985 |
0.976 |
$8,769.16 |
$4,276.76 |
+95.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
26,661 |
0.034 |
$906.48 |
$-601.74 |
-39.9% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
No |
1,801 |
0.330 |
$594.32 |
$198.71 |
+50.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
2,579 |
0.215 |
$554.57 |
$-526.88 |
-48.7% |
| Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
Yes |
1,236 |
0.360 |
$445.09 |
$-183.97 |
-29.2% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
No |
3,077 |
0.110 |
$336.89 |
$139.33 |
+70.5% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
8,985 |
0.024 |
$215.64 |
$-4,276.76 |
-95.2% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
833 |
0.235 |
$195.75 |
$-20.82 |
-9.6% |
| Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? |
Yes |
424 |
0.210 |
$89.09 |
$-8.48 |
-8.7% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.013 |
$54.00 |
$-178.00 |
-76.7% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
4,679 |
0.008 |
$37.43 |
$-898.42 |
-96.0% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? |
Yes |
537 |
0.070 |
$37.34 |
$-33.38 |
-47.2% |
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? |
No |
1,140 |
0.025 |
$27.92 |
$-20.22 |
-42.0% |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? |
No |
516 |
0.030 |
$15.73 |
$-4.66 |
-22.9% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
399 |
0.006 |
$2.59 |
$-75.95 |
-96.7% |
| Will John Stevens win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
1,044 |
0.001 |
$0.52 |
$-1.10 |
-67.9% |
| Will Andrew Pemberton win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
579 |
0.001 |
$0.29 |
$-0.69 |
-70.4% |