PnL (30d)

−$83

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$3

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-8.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

45%

294W / 361L · 36 open

Win Return (30d)

45%

307W / 376L · 8 open

Trades (30d)

691

across 242 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$0.38

avg win $3 · loss $3

Profit Factor

0.78

$288 won / $371 lost

Reward / Risk

1.15

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$60

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	44.9% 294W/361L	242	$1,681
₿ Crypto	42.0% 107W/148L	92	$515
🏛 Politics	36.4% 8W/14L	23	$89
🎬 Culture	36.4% 8W/14L	21	$80
🌤 Weather	100.0% 2W/0L	1	$4
⚽ Sports	—	1	$0

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

22 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 5AM ET	Down	10	0.295	$2.95	$-1.15	-28.0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	7	0.415	$2.78	$1.78	+176.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	66	0.032	$2.07	$0.07	+3.3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	10	0.179	$1.81	$0.80	+79.5%
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in August 2026?	Yes	10	0.160	$1.64	$0.49	+43.0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	13	0.125	$1.57	$0.57	+56.2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	6	0.245	$1.54	$0.54	+53.1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	18	0.075	$1.33	$-1.28	-48.9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	8	0.165	$1.29	$0.27	+26.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	8	0.165	$1.27	$0.27	+26.9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	6	0.185	$1.17	$0.16	+15.6%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	10	0.115	$1.15	$0.24	+27.2%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	8	0.115	$0.97	$-0.04	-4.2%
Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	14	0.063	$0.91	$-0.09	-9.4%
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	1	0.867	$0.87	$0.37	+73.3%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	12	0.069	$0.86	$-0.14	-14.4%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	7	0.113	$0.77	$-0.24	-24.2%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	10	0.075	$0.76	$-0.24	-24.5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	23	0.019	$0.44	$-0.56	-55.7%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	13	0.018	$0.25	$-0.75	-75.3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	8	0.018	$0.14	$-0.87	-85.8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	18	0.006	$0.12	$-0.95	-89.2%