PnL (30d)

−$61

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$3

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-39.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

43%

38W / 51L · 22 open

Win Return (30d)

41%

46W / 65L

Trades (30d)

111

across 43 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$2.25

avg win $5 · loss $7

Profit Factor

0.49

$59 won / $120 lost

Reward / Risk

0.72

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$6

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	44.9% 294W/361L	243	$1,695
₿ Crypto	42.0% 107W/148L	92	$515
🏛 Politics	33.3% 7W/14L	23	$88
🎬 Culture	33.3% 7W/14L	21	$79
⚽ Sports	—	1	$0

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

21 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	7	0.435	$2.91	$1.91	+190.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	66	0.027	$1.77	$-0.23	-11.5%
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in August 2026?	Yes	10	0.165	$1.70	$0.55	+47.4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	18	0.095	$1.69	$-0.92	-35.3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	6	0.265	$1.67	$0.66	+65.6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	10	0.162	$1.63	$0.62	+61.5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	13	0.125	$1.57	$0.57	+56.2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	8	0.175	$1.36	$0.35	+34.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	8	0.175	$1.35	$0.35	+34.6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	6	0.185	$1.17	$0.16	+15.6%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	10	0.115	$1.15	$0.24	+27.2%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	8	0.130	$1.09	$0.08	+8.3%
Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	14	0.063	$0.91	$-0.09	-9.4%
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	1	0.868	$0.87	$0.37	+73.5%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	12	0.068	$0.85	$-0.15	-15.0%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	10	0.075	$0.75	$-0.25	-25.0%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	7	0.105	$0.72	$-0.30	-29.2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	23	0.022	$0.51	$-0.49	-48.9%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	13	0.018	$0.24	$-0.76	-75.9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	8	0.024	$0.19	$-0.83	-81.5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	18	0.005	$0.10	$-0.97	-90.8%